*blows dust off Excel spreadsheets*
*cracks neck, knuckles*
All right, kids, it's time to recap this thing. I'm patting myself on the back for getting it out the door before pitchers and catchers report for Spring Training. We set high standards of excellence around here. Let's dive into the lower division and see what we can discern, along with the conclusion of this year's Pirates Watch. We'll start with the clubs slated for promotion.
THE LOCKS
CINCINNATI: A few Championship teams clearly excelled in the True standings this year -- Cincinnati not only made the postseason but won the National League team Triple Crown. It couldn't keep them from crashing out of the NLDS in straight sets against Premiership stalwart Philadelphia, though, and the numbers tell the story. The Redlegs built up an impressive +105 run differential against Championship opponents, but against the elite, they were a disappointing -21. But considering that no Championship club finished with a positive RD against the Premiership (in fact, only eight clubs managed to do so -- more on that in later posts), Cincy can be proud of their accomplishments and almost certain promotion to the 2011 Premiership.
SAN DIEGO: The Fraticelli faithful were flummoxed in their shot at the post season, losing out on the NL West title to eventual 2010 champs San Francisco, and missing out on the wild card as well. They finished just behind Cincinnati in CRD and just ahead of them in PRD. Though the season did not go their way, they'll get their chance for revenge against the Giants in next year's Premiership.
OAKLAND: And speaking of the Bay Area, the White Elephants finished with a highly respectable RD against their Championship opponents this season. But as long as division-winners Texas outscore them in CRD by 50, there's little hope of the A's climbing out of second place in the AL West.
ON THE BUBBLE
CHICAGO WHITE SOX: The Li'l Brudders managed to finish the season with the best PRD of any Championship team at -2, twenty runs better than the crosstown rival Cubs. The pitching staff hasn't improved for 2011, but with the addition of a big bat in Adam Dunn, they may yet make their case for a prolonged stay in the Premiership.
DETROIT: Still behind the Twins and the surging Sox in the AL Central, their -29 PRD beats the A's mark of -40, but doesn't quite get them to the next level. Miggy Cabrera can't do it all by himself -- Victor Martinez will help some, and Joaquin Benoit should help nail down a shaky bullpen. They'll have to hope young staffers Scherzer, Porcello, and Galarraga can lead them to the promised land.
WAIT 'TIL NEXT YEAR
MILWAUKEE: Now, the Brewers may not seem all that impressive given their division and their finish within it, but they were actually a bit lucky in that respect, finishing with a worse PRD than cellar-dwellers Houston. Their problem was pitching and defense, allowing over 800 runs in 2010. With the addition of Cy Young winner Greinke and a solid #3 in Shawn Marcum, look for a surprising run from the Hopmen in 2011. You know, if Corey Hart and Casey McGehee don't turn into pumpkins.
TREADING WATER
NEW YORK METS: Doing just enough to finish around .500 is never going to cut it in the NL East. The Phillies and Braves are clearly ahead of them, and they're about even with the Marlins. Until someone comes along to save the franchise (Ike Davis? Johan Santana again?), this team will play for nothing more than its skipper's job every season.
ARIZONA: There's something of a divide between the Metropolitans and Slytherin here -- the Amazin's actually finished with a CRD close to zero. The Diamondbacks juuuust missed the mark at -117. But seeing as they're the only NL West club playing Championship calibre baseball, we'll give them the benefit of strength of schedule. As a side note, remember when this club had pitching galore? Brandon Webb, Dan Haren, Randy Johnson? Now they have one good player (Upton), one pretty good player (C.B. Young), one possible flash-in-the-pan (Kelly Johnson), Miguel Montero, and a rotation anchored by Joe Saunders. Let's hope Daniel Hudson lives up to his promising late-season performance.
NOT AS BAD AS YOU MIGHT THINK, BUT STILL BAD
WASHINGTON: The Nationals continue to dwell in the NL East cellar. They've found no answers at pitching besides the hope of Stephen Strasburg's elbow and overuse of Tyler Clippard, trying the likes of left-for-dead Chien-Ming Wang and probably-not-worth-three-prospects Tom Gorzelanny. They lost Adam Dunn and tried to replace him with an aging, overpaid Jayson Werth. Is it time to call up Bryce Harper yet?
CLEVELAND: Nope, it's not the lack of Grady Sizemore. It's a young rotation, a suspect bullpen, and the fact that Pronk Hafner gave up the ghost three years ago. It's tough to be optimistic about Cleveland in general these days, and the Indians aren't helping matters. Here's hoping Carlos Santana makes it back to the show soon.
EXACTLY AS BAD AS YOU MIGHT THINK
BALTIMORE: Like the D'Backs, the Flying Showalters are the only team in their division in the Championship, and with a total RD of -172, they'd likely deserve to stay there if not for a rather intriguing off-season. They dealt for free-swinging Mark Reynolds, signed the more disciplined Vlad Guerrero, overhauled the infield with Derrek Lee and J.J. Hardy, and if Matusz and Tillman can take the next step, the O's could be pleasantly frisky this season. If only they played in another division.
HOUSTON: The Astros finished on about the same level as the Orioles, made worse by their National League status and the fact that only two of the five other teams in the NL Central played at a Premiership level this season. They traded their long-time ace, El Caballo is now the Great Pumpkin, and Hunter Pence isn't the next big thing anymore. Also, they have one of the league's worst farm systems. Something is afoot at the Circle K, but it ain't good baseball.
WORSE THAN ANYONE COULD HAVE IMAGINED
SEATTLE: Jayson Stark
already covered just how offensively the M's offense performed in 2010, but in a nutshell, it was the fewest runs scored by a team in 40 years. The fact that Felix Hernandez managed double digit wins with this club astounds me. Imagine what he and Ichiro could do if they played for a team that could hit. Unless Justin Smoak comes on strong, this team is sunk for the foreseeable future. Fun stat comparison: Mariners CRD -135; Rangers CRD +135.
UTTERLY INEXPLICABLE
KANSAS CITY: I don't know what to make of the Royals. Are they on their way up or on their way down? They seemed to collapse at the end of the year, but don't they always? They've got hot-hitting prospects just waiting to fill holes at the corners and the dish. Maybe this is why pundits are constantly taking KC as the sexy sleeper pick. I just...don't...know.
THE WORST TEAM IN ... WAIT, WHAT?
PITTSBURGH: By now you've heard about their singular road game futility, winning six such contests after the All-Star Break. The 2010 Pirates Watch concludes with the Bucs 7 games up on the 2003 Tigers, trailing them by 4 in Runs Scored, but leading the RD race by a comfortable 58 runs.
Here's what I really don't get: the Pirates were far and away the worst team in the Championship, amassing a -185 CRD (for those of you keeping score, that's more than three times worse than second-to-last Houston). However, their PRD was -94. That's still bottom five in the league, but since Pittsburgh roughly split their games between Premiership and Championship opponents, it means they were effectively twice as good against the MLB's best teams as against the worst teams. And that's as good an argument for the intangibles of baseball as any I've heard.
