Friday, July 22, 2011

100 Games in -- Let's Go

Well, the 2011 MLB season has been well underway for some time -- more than enough to get a nice sample size in both the Premiership and Championship divisions of baseball. I want to start out with a big old tip of the cap to http://www.baseball-reference.com, without which this site would be impossible.

This season, I've overhauled the Excel spreadsheet, dramatically increasing its robust productivity (robustivity) to bring the data to you more quickly. I might even go weekly here, people. Take a moment to catch your breath.

First, a brief reminder of what Premiership baseball is all about:
  • The current MLB measure of success is the win. Win a much higher percentage of games than you lose (within a roughly-geographical grouping of other teams within yet another group decided by the presence of pitchers in the lineup as a matter of course), and you go to something called the "playoffs," an elimination tournament wherein the last team standing is crowned World Series Champion (of the only two countries in the known world). Luck is nice and all, but I think we can do better.
  • The rawest measure of a baseball team's success is how well they A) score runs and B) prevent the opponent from scoring runs. Subtract their runs allowed from their runs scored and you get run differential (RD), which is how I'll judge success.
  • I started out by splitting the major league clubs into two divisions based on their 2009 end-of-season RD -- the Premiership (teams with positive RD) and the Championship (teams with negative RD). At the end of every season, the three (note: number subject to change) teams with the lowest RD in the Premiership switch places with the teams holding the highest RD in the Championship.
At the end of last season, the Dodgers, Marlins and Blue Jays suffered relegation, while the Padres, Reds and A's earned a year's stay in the top flight. So after 100 games, I'm eager to see how things are shaping up in 2011.

PREMIERSHIP STANDINGS (MLB)

POSITION TEAM GAMES PLAYED WINS LOSSES RUNS SCORED RUNS ALLOWED RUN DIFF Win PCG
#1 Boston Red Sox 96 59 37 519 401 118 0.615
#2 New York Yankees 96 57 39 486 369 117 0.594
#3 Philadelphia Phillies 97 61 36 415 322 93 0.629
#4 Texas Rangers 99 56 43 489 416 73 0.566
#5 Atlanta Braves 99 58 41 408 351 57 0.586
#6 Tampa Bay Rays 97 52 45 403 371 32 0.536
#7 Cincinnati Reds 98 48 50 450 422 28 0.490
#8 St. Louis Cardinals 98 51 47 456 429 27 0.520
#9 San Francisco Giants 99 57 42 361 343 18 0.576
#10 Los Angeles Angels 99 53 46 376 365 11 0.535
#11 Colorado Rockies 99 47 52 446 443 3 0.475
#12 Oakland Athletics 98 43 55 345 363 -18 0.439
#13 San Diego Padres 99 44 55 344 363 -19 0.444
#14 Minnesota Twins 98 46 52 380 449 -69 0.469
#15 Chicago Cubs 99 39 60 397 500 -103 0.394


CHAMPIONSHIP STANDINGS (MLB)

POSITION TEAM GAMES PLAYED WINS LOSSES RUNS SCORED RUNS ALLOWED RUN DIFF Win PCG
#1 Toronto Blue Jays 99 50 49 476 451 25 0.505
#2 Pittsburgh Pirates 96 51 45 373 360 13 0.531
#3 New York Mets 98 49 49 430 422 8 0.500
#4 Arizona Diamondbacks 99 53 46 439 432 7 0.535
#5 Cleveland Indians 97 51 46 425 419 6 0.526
#6 Chicago White Sox 98 47 51 390 397 -7 0.480
#7 Milwaukee Brewers 100 53 47 436 444 -8 0.530
#8 Washington Nationals 98 48 50 379 388 -9 0.490
#9 Detroit Tigers 98 52 46 438 449 -11 0.531
#10 Los Angeles Dodgers 98 43 55 353 394 -41 0.439
#11 Seattle Mariners 98 43 55 319 360 -41 0.439
#12 Florida Marlins 99 47 52 389 433 -44 0.475
#13 Kansas City Royals 98 40 58 422 474 -52 0.408
#14 Baltimore Orioles 95 39 56 394 497 -103 0.411
#15 Houston Astros 98 33 65 381 492 -111 0.337

PREMIERSHIP STANDINGS (TRUE)

POSITION TEAM GAMES PLAYED WINS LOSSES RUN DIFF CHAMP RD
#1 Philadelphia Phillies 43 27 16 43 50
#2 New York Yankees 45 26 19 31 86
#3 Cincinnati Reds 40 22 18 27 1
#4 Boston Red Sox 46 29 17 23 95
#5 Tampa Bay Rays 44 23 21 23 9
#6 Texas Rangers 44 21 23 4 69
#7 Atlanta Braves 44 24 20 -2 59
#8 San Francisco Giants 50 28 22 -6 24
#9 Colorado Rockies 42 18 24 -6 9
#10 St. Louis Cardinals 45 23 22 -8 35
#11 Minnesota Twins 35 16 19 -8 -61
#12 Los Angeles Angels 47 21 26 -14 25
#13 Oakland Athletics 45 19 26 -23 5
#14 San Diego Padres 50 20 30 -29 10
#15 Chicago Cubs 42 14 28 -55 -48

CHAMPIONSHIP STANDINGS (TRUE)

POSITION TEAM GAMES PLAYED WINS LOSSES PREM DIFF RUN DIFF
#1 Cleveland Indians 44 29 15 -51 57
#2 New York Mets 43 26 17 -41 49
#3 Milwaukee Brewers 33 20 13 0 32
#4 Toronto Blue Jays 39 21 18 1 24
#5 Arizona Diamondbacks 45 25 20 0 7
#6 Chicago White Sox 45 21 24 -12 5
#7 Florida Marlins 44 23 21 -43 -1
#8 Washington Nationals 50 25 25 -8 -1
#9 Baltimore Orioles 41 21 20 -89 -14
#10 Pittsburgh Pirates 54 26 28 29 -16
#11 Los Angeles Dodgers 36 15 21 -24 -17
#12 Detroit Tigers 55 28 27 7 -18
#13 Seattle Mariners 42 15 27 -9 -32
#14 Houston Astros 46 18 28 -77 -34
#15 Kansas City Royals 43 17 26 -11 -41

Now, in the Premiership, newly advanced Oakland and San Diego find themselves in trouble, along with my beloved Cubs, who barely made the cut in 2010. It's a similar tale of woe for the recently demerited -- if the season ended today, the Jays, Marlins and Dodgers would remain in the relegation pool, giving way to the unlikely trio of Cleveland, Milwaukee, and the Mets. But with 60+ games remaining, anything could happen.

====================================================================

One more note: in last season's concluding post, I noted that the teams with the highest CRD (Championship run differential) either made the playoffs or were edged out by another team on the list within their division. If we apply the same criterion to the current standings, then this (very rudimentary) rubric finds the following clubs playing in October (* indicates a fair [read: completely nonmathematical] degree of certainty):

*Boston 95 -- AL East Champions
*NY Yankees 86 -- AL Wild Card
*Texas 69 -- AL West Champions
Atlanta 59 -- NL East Champions
*Cleveland 57 -- AL Central Champions
Philadelphia 50 -- NL Wild Card
St. Louis 35 -- NL Central Champions
*San Francisco 24 -- NL West Champions

The race for the NL Central is very, very close -- the Cards have only a 3-run advantage over Milwaukee. And I have to mention: for the second year in a row, the Pirates are on track to do twice as well against the top teams as against the second-tier sides. I don't see them making the playoffs.

But I do see them finishing about .500 for the first time since 1992.

Monday, February 14, 2011

Promotion, Relegation, and an Old Adage Proves True

All right, for your perusal, the final 2010 Premiership Baseball League tables:

PREMIERSHIP STANDINGS (TRUE)

POSITION TEAM GAMES PLAYED WINS LOSSES RUN DIFF CHAMP RD LAST TIME
#1 Boston Red Sox 94 54 40 57 17 #2
#2 Tampa Bay Rays 86 48 38 45 108 #1
#3 St. Louis Cardinals 62 33 29 40 55 #4
#4 Philadelphia Phillies 84 49 35 40 92 #5
#5 Atlanta Braves 77 40 37 30 79 #3
#6 San Francisco Giants 75 40 35 16 98 #6
#7 Colorado Rockies 80 37 43 6 47 #7
#8 New York Yankees 82 40 42 4 162 #8
#9 Minnesota Twins 54 27 27 -2 112 #9
#10 Los Angeles Angels 77 36 41 -14 -7 #10
#11 Chicago Cubs 58 29 29 -23 -59 #11
#12 Texas Rangers 69 32 37 -35 135 #12
#13 Toronto Blue Jays 94 44 50 -40 67 #13
#14 Los Angeles Dodgers 82 35 47 -60 35 #14
#15 Florida Marlins 76 31 45 -64 66 #15


CHAMPIONSHIP STANDINGS (TRUE)

POSITION TEAM GAMES PLAYED WINS LOSSES RUN DIFF PREM RD LAST TIME
#1 Cincinnati Reds 86 54 32 126 -21 #2
#2 San Diego Padres 65 41 24 103 -19 #1
#3 Oakland Athletics 68 43 25 88 -51 #3
#4 Chicago White Sox 86 49 37 50 -2 #7
#5 Detroit Tigers 90 49 41 37 -29 #9
#6 Milwaukee Brewers 77 41 36 22 -76 #4
#7 New York Mets 66 35 31 13 -9 #5
#8 Arizona Diamondbacks 61 28 33 -6 -117 #10
#9 Washington Nationals 76 35 41 -18 -69 #11
#10 Cleveland Indians 91 42 49 -22 -84 #12
#11 Kansas City Royals 87 41 46 -50 -119 #6
#12 Seattle Mariners 74 32 42 -50 -135 #8
#13 Baltimore Orioles 60 25 35 -51 -121 #14
#14 Houston Astros 78 37 41 -57 -61 #13
#15 Pittsburgh Pirates 86 23 63 -185 -94 #15

So now, the moment we've all been waiting for: the official promotion and relegation for the 2011 Premiership Baseball season! We'll keep this simple, and just like its soccer cousins -- bottom three in PRD get relegated, top three in CRD get promoted. That means that Toronto, Dodgers, and Florida are out, and Cincinnati, San Diego, and Oakland are in!

To the winners, welcome to the big show! To the unlucky demotees, best of luck on a swift return.

Now, there's one more thing I've noticed that I'd like to address. Watch what happens when we line up this year's top ten teams in CRD (run differential against Championship clubs):

YANKEES: 162
TEXAS: 135
CINCINNATI: 126
MINNESOTA: 112
TAMPA: 108
SAN DIEGO: 103
SAN FRANCISCO: 98
PHILADELPHIA: 92
OAKLAND: 88
ATLANTA: 79

Notice anything interesting? What you have there are the eight 2010 MLB playoff teams, San Diego (who lost their spot on the last day of the season), and Oakland. Compare Boston, who won the Premiership but had only a +17 CRD and missed the playoffs. Here might just be proof positive that good teams don't beat themselves.

That's all for 2010. Pitchers and catchers have reported, so it's good luck to all squads in 2011!

Saturday, February 12, 2011

2010 Season Wrap-Up Part 2: the Premiership

Remember when I said I was patting myself on the back for finishing the recap before pitchers and catchers. Looks like I'm gonna have to jump...

THE ACHILLES

BOSTON: It's been a busy off-season for the Red Sox, acquiring slugger Adrian Gonzalez and speedy Carl Crawford. If they have good luck with injuries and get anything close to Josh Beckett's full potential, this team will have to throw the postseason to keep from going all the way. They led the Premiership with +57 PRD, despite finishing 9th in the MLB standings. I could see them winning over 100 games this year...if they stop playing down to their opponents (+17 CRD). That might end up being the Sox' Achilles heel, for reasons you'll soon see.

THE CONTENDERS

TAMPA BAY RAYS: The Sunbeams were #2 in both tables last year, giving them the highest average position. Their rotation loses Matt Garza to my Cubs, but they have more than enough back-up waiting in the wings. There's no way they can replace Carl Crawford, but they still have a solid section of the line-up that scored over 800 runs last season.

PHILADELPHIA: What are the odds running on a Philadelphia/Boston World Series? The Phils finished tied for third with +40 PRD, and now they have Cliff Lee and Domonic Brown coming in to help out. Injuries can bite any team, and their big bats aren't getting any younger, but with that rotation, how could they lose? Maybe we'll find out.

THE QUESTION MARK

ST. LOUIS: Tied with Philadelphia in 3rd, the Cardinals didn't even make the postseason, losing out to Championship winners Cincinnati, and trailing them by 70 CRD. With the Brewers looking mightier, Adam Wainwright's shoulder status uncertain, and Albert's deadline looming, the Redbirds may just have more on their minds than getting on base and making bats miss. Any baseball lifer will tell you that when you lose that focus, it's bad news for team performance.

THE STALWART

ATLANTA: The Schema will have to adjust to life with Bobby Cox, but as the team that finished 5th in the Premiership with +30 PRD, they should be in good shape for 2011. Chipper Jones may be staring at his final season, but the future looks bright in Atlanta as Jason Heyward, Tommy Hanson, and perhaps Freddie Freeman and Mike Minor take the reins. If only they didn't play in the Phillies' division. Also, Tommy and Freddie? Is it the '70s?

THE WORLD CHAMPIONS

SAN FRANCISCO: The Giants finished 4th in MLBRD but 6th in PRD, at +16. It's not so far-fetched, then, that they could win the World Series by catching the right breaks at the right times. It is, after all, not how you're good, but when you're good. San Fran feasted on weak teams in 2010, and teams with that talent tended to make the postseason. With all the extra wear on young pitching arms, though, I'd be willing to bet they don't get back there this year, especially not with the next team hot on their heels.

TREADING WATER

COLORADO: Coming in at number seven with a meager +6 PRD, a busy offseason saw the Pikemen do more extending current players than wheeling and dealing. A full season from Troy Tulowitzki and a knack for beating the minnows might be all they need to unseat the Division-winning Giants., who nearly doubled them up in CRD.

NEW YORK YANKEES: Baseball's winningest franchise finished dead middle of the pack, peeking just into the black with +4 PRD. Dead-middle now describes the Yankees pitching situation. Who's going to fill the 3-5 spots in their rotation? With a collection of questionable innings-eaters invited to spring training, will the Bronx Bombers finish next Premiership season in the red?

MINNESOTA: The Twins won a weak AL Central in 2010, mostly without Justin Morneau, and they have their work cut out for them with Detroit and White Sox both going all-out to win the Hot Stove league. A returning Joe Nathan may lock down the ninth inning, but the real action here is a largely unknown and highly underestimated rotation. There's plenty of work to be done as Minnesota finished with -2 PRD but a +112 CRD is very reassuring.

THE END OF AN ERA

LOS ANGELES ANGELS OF ANAHEIM: What a mess. The Team of Two Cities finished with a -14 PRD, and they could only manage -7 against the Championship. Then they trade away their best-hitting catcher and a serviceable outfielder for the worst contract in baseball this winter? If Mike Scoscia can wrestle this team above .500, he should be Manager of the Year.

MEDIOCRITY IN PERPETUO

CHICAGO CUBS: Woe, woe, woe for the home team at Wrigley Field! The Cubs slot in at eleventh in the Premiership as yet another anomalous team who was actually worse against the Championship (-23 PRD/-59 CRD). Speaking of Mikes managerial, Mike Quade may have a long journey ahead of him with a club under the weight of Alfonso Soriano's contract and perennial expectations. If he can make it to 2013, things might improve. But probably not before.

MEDIOCRITY UNTIL VERY RECENTLY

TEXAS: The Rangers made their first World Series in franchise history last year (you might have heard about that), but they promptly lost to a team that hadn't won the whole she-bang since they moved the entire operation across the country. With a whopping +135 CRD, Arlington looks stellar against the little fish, but put up a disappointing -35 against their fellow premiership sides.

THE BOTTOM THREE

TORONTO: It's not really fair to the Blue Jays to lump them in with the last two, as they best the next lowest finisher by 20 RD. They play in the toughest division in baseball, and now that the Orioles have lost their minds under Showalter (for the better), they may not even be the best team in their division named after a bird. But hey, at least they jettisoned Vernon Wells without having to eat any of his salary. Smashing success this winter, then, eh?

LOS ANGELES DODGERS: Embroiled in a vicious divorce case in a large tv market, prospects taking a step back, the Trolley Dodgers ended up at -60 PRD, just four runs out of last place in the premiership. This is not the way to spend Vin Scully's last years as a broadcaster.

FLORIDA: By the time the Marlins recover from a season in which they finished at a +2 RD, we may officially be calling them the Miami Marlins. A farm system depleted by promotion-by-necessity will certainly rebound soon.

Next up: The final league tables, and an interesting insight into 2010's playoff squads.

Monday, January 17, 2011

2010 Season Wrap-Up Part 1: the Championship

*blows dust off Excel spreadsheets*

*cracks neck, knuckles*

All right, kids, it's time to recap this thing. I'm patting myself on the back for getting it out the door before pitchers and catchers report for Spring Training. We set high standards of excellence around here. Let's dive into the lower division and see what we can discern, along with the conclusion of this year's Pirates Watch. We'll start with the clubs slated for promotion.

THE LOCKS

CINCINNATI: A few Championship teams clearly excelled in the True standings this year -- Cincinnati not only made the postseason but won the National League team Triple Crown. It couldn't keep them from crashing out of the NLDS in straight sets against Premiership stalwart Philadelphia, though, and the numbers tell the story. The Redlegs built up an impressive +105 run differential against Championship opponents, but against the elite, they were a disappointing -21. But considering that no Championship club finished with a positive RD against the Premiership (in fact, only eight clubs managed to do so -- more on that in later posts), Cincy can be proud of their accomplishments and almost certain promotion to the 2011 Premiership.

SAN DIEGO: The Fraticelli faithful were flummoxed in their shot at the post season, losing out on the NL West title to eventual 2010 champs San Francisco, and missing out on the wild card as well. They finished just behind Cincinnati in CRD and just ahead of them in PRD. Though the season did not go their way, they'll get their chance for revenge against the Giants in next year's Premiership.

OAKLAND: And speaking of the Bay Area, the White Elephants finished with a highly respectable RD against their Championship opponents this season. But as long as division-winners Texas outscore them in CRD by 50, there's little hope of the A's climbing out of second place in the AL West.

ON THE BUBBLE

CHICAGO WHITE SOX: The Li'l Brudders managed to finish the season with the best PRD of any Championship team at -2, twenty runs better than the crosstown rival Cubs. The pitching staff hasn't improved for 2011, but with the addition of a big bat in Adam Dunn, they may yet make their case for a prolonged stay in the Premiership.

DETROIT: Still behind the Twins and the surging Sox in the AL Central, their -29 PRD beats the A's mark of -40, but doesn't quite get them to the next level. Miggy Cabrera can't do it all by himself -- Victor Martinez will help some, and Joaquin Benoit should help nail down a shaky bullpen. They'll have to hope young staffers Scherzer, Porcello, and Galarraga can lead them to the promised land.

WAIT 'TIL NEXT YEAR

MILWAUKEE: Now, the Brewers may not seem all that impressive given their division and their finish within it, but they were actually a bit lucky in that respect, finishing with a worse PRD than cellar-dwellers Houston. Their problem was pitching and defense, allowing over 800 runs in 2010. With the addition of Cy Young winner Greinke and a solid #3 in Shawn Marcum, look for a surprising run from the Hopmen in 2011. You know, if Corey Hart and Casey McGehee don't turn into pumpkins.

TREADING WATER

NEW YORK METS: Doing just enough to finish around .500 is never going to cut it in the NL East. The Phillies and Braves are clearly ahead of them, and they're about even with the Marlins. Until someone comes along to save the franchise (Ike Davis? Johan Santana again?), this team will play for nothing more than its skipper's job every season.

ARIZONA: There's something of a divide between the Metropolitans and Slytherin here -- the Amazin's actually finished with a CRD close to zero. The Diamondbacks juuuust missed the mark at -117. But seeing as they're the only NL West club playing Championship calibre baseball, we'll give them the benefit of strength of schedule. As a side note, remember when this club had pitching galore? Brandon Webb, Dan Haren, Randy Johnson? Now they have one good player (Upton), one pretty good player (C.B. Young), one possible flash-in-the-pan (Kelly Johnson), Miguel Montero, and a rotation anchored by Joe Saunders. Let's hope Daniel Hudson lives up to his promising late-season performance.

NOT AS BAD AS YOU MIGHT THINK, BUT STILL BAD

WASHINGTON: The Nationals continue to dwell in the NL East cellar. They've found no answers at pitching besides the hope of Stephen Strasburg's elbow and overuse of Tyler Clippard, trying the likes of left-for-dead Chien-Ming Wang and probably-not-worth-three-prospects Tom Gorzelanny. They lost Adam Dunn and tried to replace him with an aging, overpaid Jayson Werth. Is it time to call up Bryce Harper yet?

CLEVELAND: Nope, it's not the lack of Grady Sizemore. It's a young rotation, a suspect bullpen, and the fact that Pronk Hafner gave up the ghost three years ago. It's tough to be optimistic about Cleveland in general these days, and the Indians aren't helping matters. Here's hoping Carlos Santana makes it back to the show soon.

EXACTLY AS BAD AS YOU MIGHT THINK

BALTIMORE: Like the D'Backs, the Flying Showalters are the only team in their division in the Championship, and with a total RD of -172, they'd likely deserve to stay there if not for a rather intriguing off-season. They dealt for free-swinging Mark Reynolds, signed the more disciplined Vlad Guerrero, overhauled the infield with Derrek Lee and J.J. Hardy, and if Matusz and Tillman can take the next step, the O's could be pleasantly frisky this season. If only they played in another division.

HOUSTON: The Astros finished on about the same level as the Orioles, made worse by their National League status and the fact that only two of the five other teams in the NL Central played at a Premiership level this season. They traded their long-time ace, El Caballo is now the Great Pumpkin, and Hunter Pence isn't the next big thing anymore. Also, they have one of the league's worst farm systems. Something is afoot at the Circle K, but it ain't good baseball.

WORSE THAN ANYONE COULD HAVE IMAGINED

SEATTLE: Jayson Stark already covered just how offensively the M's offense performed in 2010, but in a nutshell, it was the fewest runs scored by a team in 40 years. The fact that Felix Hernandez managed double digit wins with this club astounds me. Imagine what he and Ichiro could do if they played for a team that could hit. Unless Justin Smoak comes on strong, this team is sunk for the foreseeable future. Fun stat comparison: Mariners CRD -135; Rangers CRD +135.

UTTERLY INEXPLICABLE

KANSAS CITY: I don't know what to make of the Royals. Are they on their way up or on their way down? They seemed to collapse at the end of the year, but don't they always? They've got hot-hitting prospects just waiting to fill holes at the corners and the dish. Maybe this is why pundits are constantly taking KC as the sexy sleeper pick. I just...don't...know.

THE WORST TEAM IN ... WAIT, WHAT?

PITTSBURGH: By now you've heard about their singular road game futility, winning six such contests after the All-Star Break. The 2010 Pirates Watch concludes with the Bucs 7 games up on the 2003 Tigers, trailing them by 4 in Runs Scored, but leading the RD race by a comfortable 58 runs.

Here's what I really don't get: the Pirates were far and away the worst team in the Championship, amassing a -185 CRD (for those of you keeping score, that's more than three times worse than second-to-last Houston). However, their PRD was -94. That's still bottom five in the league, but since Pittsburgh roughly split their games between Premiership and Championship opponents, it means they were effectively twice as good against the MLB's best teams as against the worst teams. And that's as good an argument for the intangibles of baseball as any I've heard.

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