Monday, July 5, 2010

ASB Update

Whoa. When I promised an update around the All-Star Break, I didn't mean to leave off completely until then. But to make amends, I have the promised update, and I think you'll find the results intriguing. First, the MLB standings:

PREMIERSHIP STANDINGS (MLB)

POSITION TEAM GAMES PLAYED WINS LOSSES RUNS SCORED RUNS ALLOWED RUN DIFF Win PCG Last Time
#1 Tampa Bay Rays 81 48 33 411 312 99 0.593 #1
#2 New York Yankees 81 50 31 436 340 96 0.617 #2
#3 Texas Rangers 81 48 33 422 343 79 0.593 #9
#4 Boston Red Sox 82 49 33 448 379 69 0.598 #14
#5 Atlanta Braves 82 48 34 384 321 63 0.585 #12
#6 St. Louis Cardinals 82 45 37 360 308 52 0.549 #6
#7 Minnesota Twins 82 44 38 382 335 47 0.537 #3
#8 Philadelphia Phillies 80 42 38 384 338 46 0.525 #4
#9 Colorado Rockies 82 44 38 385 348 37 0.537 #7
#10 San Francisco Giants 81 41 40 338 308 30 0.506 #5
#11 Los Angeles Dodgers 81 45 36 389 364 25 0.556 #13
#12 Florida Marlins 81 38 43 378 355 23 0.469 #10
#13 Los Angeles Angels 84 46 38 398 392 6 0.548 #15
#14 Toronto Blue Jays 83 41 42 370 372 -2 0.494 #8
#15 Chicago Cubs 82 35 47 320 371 -51 0.427 #11


CHAMPIONSHIP STANDINGS (MLB)

POSITION TEAM GAMES PLAYED WINS LOSSES RUNS SCORED RUNS ALLOWED RUN DIFF Win PCG Last Time
#1 San Diego Padres 82 49 33 339 269 70 0.598 #1
#2 New York Mets 82 46 36 381 328 53 0.561 #2
#3 Cincinnati Reds 83 47 36 416 367 49 0.566 #8
#4 Detroit Tigers 80 43 37 361 361 0 0.538 #4
#5 Oakland Athletics 83 41 42 340 341 -1 0.494 #5
#6 Chicago White Sox 80 42 38 346 350 -4 0.525 #9
#7 Milwaukee Brewers 82 37 45 396 424 -28 0.451 #3
#8 Kansas City Royals 82 36 46 361 400 -39 0.439 #12
#9 Washington Nationals 83 36 47 337 383 -46 0.434 #7
#10 Seattle Mariners 81 34 47 281 343 -62 0.420 #10
#11 Cleveland Indians 81 32 49 331 403 -72 0.395 #11
#12 Arizona Diamondbacks 82 32 50 376 468 -92 0.390 #6
#13 Houston Astros 83 32 51 287 412 -125 0.386 #14
#14 Baltimore Orioles 81 25 56 285 431 -146 0.309 #13
#15 Pittsburgh Pirates 82 30 52 267 449 -182 0.366 #15

If the season ended today, then by MLB standings, the Padres, Mets, and Reds would graduate to the Premiership, while the Angels, Jays, and Cubs would suffer relegation. The feast continues for most teams in the upper echelon, and the famine likewise for the have-nots. Not much to see here, so let's turn our gaze to the True standings.

PREMIERSHIP STANDINGS (TRUE)

POSITION TEAM GAMES PLAYED WINS LOSSES RUNS SCORED RUNS ALLOWED RUN DIFF LAST TIME
#1 Tampa Bay Rays 42 23 19 224 175 49 #4
#2 Boston Red Sox 50 31 19 274 231 43 #15
#3 New York Yankees 37 21 16 212 180 32 #1
#4 Minnesota Twins 33 17 16 146 135 11 #2
#5 Colorado Rockies 38 19 19 167 156 11 #9
#6 Atlanta Braves 38 20 18 156 147 9 #5
#7 San Francisco Giants 34 16 18 134 130 4 #3
#8 St. Louis Cardinals 25 13 12 97 93 4 #10
#9 Florida Marlins 36 16 20 151 155 -4 #6
#10 Philadelphia Phillies 43 21 22 174 181 -7 #7
#11 Chicago Cubs 22 11 11 80 93 -13 #12
#12 Los Angeles Angels 43 22 21 208 222 -14 #13
#13 Los Angeles Dodgers 35 16 19 155 173 -18 #8
#14 Texas Rangers 29 11 18 120 147 -27 #14
#15 Toronto Blue Jays 47 18 29 187 235 -48 #11

Don't panic. I plan to normalize the number of games played eventually. It seems what we all suspected about the AL East is true. The Yankees, Red Sox, and Rays really are the class of baseball -- the Man Utd, Chelsea, and Arsenal of MLB. For all their problems in MLB standings, the Cubs are safe from relegation, though precariously situated. They have floundered against weaker teams, while the Jays have clearly done their best work against underperformers.

CHAMPIONSHIP STANDINGS (TRUE)

POSITION TEAM GAMES PLAYED WINS LOSSES RUNS SCORED RUNS ALLOWED RUN DIFF LAST TIME
#1 San Diego Padres 38 25 13 177 107 70 #2
#2 Cincinnati Reds 42 26 16 188 143 45 #14
#3 Oakland Athletics 37 23 14 166 122 44 #4
#4 Milwaukee Brewers 32 17 15 170 136 34 #1
#5 New York Mets 33 18 15 169 142 27 #8
#6 Kansas City Royals 37 20 17 173 154 19 #9
#7 Chicago White Sox 34 20 14 149 135 14 #11
#8 Seattle Mariners 34 20 14 162 155 7 #3
#9 Detroit Tigers 47 26 21 216 217 -1 #10
#10 Arizona Diamondbacks 19 8 11 83 87 -4 #5
#11 Washington Nationals 46 20 26 194 214 -20 #6
#12 Cleveland Indians 49 21 28 207 240 -33 #12
#13 Houston Astros 33 14 19 122 162 -40 #7
#14 Baltimore Orioles 33 12 21 120 160 -40 #13
#15 Pittsburgh Pirates 33 11 22 116 242 -126 #15

I continue to be amazed at the bell curve the two divisions produce -- both split positive and negative run differential after the 8th place team. Are you listening, Selig? Parity is unattainable! Unlike the Premiership, the worst three Championship teams in the MLB are also the three worst teams in the CBL. By comparison, the Orioles are clearly a better team than the Astros. Houston play in a weak NL Central, where the only PB teams are St. Louis and Chicago. Baltimore are the sole AL East member in the Championship, facing tough competition on a regular basis.

And what can you say about the Pirates? Well, you can say they play better against tough teams, for starters. They're not good against tough teams, mind you, but they at least seem to play up to the level of the competition. Let's track their progress against the worst team ever, the 1899 Cleveland Spiders, and the worst team in recent memory, the 2003 Detroit Tigers:

PIRATES WATCH 2010


Runs thru 82 games Runs allowed thru 82 games RD thru 82 games Record thru 82 games Season Record Season RD
1899 Cleveland Spiders 306 632 -326 15-67 20-134 -719
2003 Detroit Tigers 260 429 -169 20-62 43-119 -337
2010 Pittsburgh Pirates 267 449 -182 30-52 ? ?

While the comparison to the Spiders is at this point unjust, check out this year's Bucs against the '03 Tigers. 7 more runs scored and 20 more runs allowed than that abysmal Detroit pitching staff, which included a 20-game loser in Mike Maroth. So why aren't we hearing more sports pundits discuss the 2010 Pirates as the worst team this generation? That's right -- because of win/loss record. Pittsburgh has 10 more wins through 82 games than the old Tigers, so they must be better! According to old Pythagoras, the Buccos have caught a streak of luck to the tune of 7 wins thus far. If their luck runs out, watch for the baseball talking heads to take notice.

The new management have put a lot of good things in place, so the future isn't all bleak in the Steel City. Maybe Pirates fans can take solace in the fact that they may finally have hit rock bottom of Sub-.500 Canyon. It can only get better in 2011, right?

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