Saturday, April 24, 2010

Updated Standings

It's approaching midnight here, and I've decided something about these standings. I can post the real MLB all-games-played standings and actually have some meaningful discussion. The 'true' divisional standings will mean relatively little for quite a while yet. For instance, the Cubs have played only one series against another Premiership team this year -- the opening series against Atlanta. Furthermore, the Cubs won't see another top-tier team until the Marlins come to town on May 10th, three weeks hence.

With this is mind, the true divisional standings will become a monthly rather than a weekly effort for the present. It will be more like a treat to see who's faring poorly in the MLB standings but doing quite well against their division. I also think it may reveal a high-flying Premiership team propelled to the top by facing mostly Championship teams, ripe for an early postseason exit.

PREMIERSHIP STANDINGS (ALL MLB):

POSITION TEAM GAMES PLAYED WINS LOSSES RUNS SCORED RUNS ALLOWED RUN DIFF
#1 Tampa Bay Rays 18 13 5 107 63 44
#2 New York Yankees 17 12 5 92 59 33
#2
Philadelphia Phillies 17 11 6 98 65 33
#4 Minnesota Twins 18 13 5 98 66 32
#5 San Francisco Giants 17 10 7 79 51 28
#6 St. Louis Cardinals 17 10 7 76 59 17
#7 Colorado Rockies 18 9 9 85 68 17
#8 Florida Marlins 18 10 8 87 84 3
#9 Toronto Blue Jays 18 10 8 81 80 1
#10 Los Angeles Dodgers 17 8 9 103 103 0
#11 Chicago Cubs 18 8 10 77 78 -1
#12 Texas Rangers 17 7 10 71 73 -2
#13 Atlanta Braves 17 8 9 70 75 -5
#14 Boston Red Sox 18 8 10 76 94 -18
#15 Los Angeles Angels 19 9 10 74 94 -20


CHAMPIONSHIP STANDINGS (ALL MLB):

POSITION TEAM GAMES PLAYED WINS LOSSES RUNS SCORED RUNS ALLOWED RUN DIFF
#1 San Diego Padres 17 11 6 79 57 22
#2 Oakland Athletics 19 11 8 81 65 16
#3 New York Mets 18 9 9 74 64 10
#4 Milwaukee Brewers 17 8 9 99 89 10
#5 Seattle Mariners 18 9 9 70 66 4
#6 Arizona Diamondbacks 17 7 10 90 90 0
#7 Detroit Tigers 18 10 8 84 85 -1
#8 Cleveland Indians 17 8 9 60 73 -13
#9 Chicago White Sox 18 7 11 71 88 -17
#10 Washington Nationals 18 9 9 83 100 -17
#11 Kansas City Royals 17 6 11 81 103 -22
#12 Houston Astros 17 7 10 50 76 -26
#13 Cincinnati Reds 18 7 11 82 112 -30
#14 Baltimore Orioles 18 2 16 55 92 -37
#15 Pittsburgh Pirates 17 7 10 59 120 -61


PREMIERSHIP STANDINGS (VS. PREMIERSHIP TEAMS):

POSITION TEAM GAMES PLAYED WINS LOSSES RUNS SCORED RUNS ALLOWED RUN DIFF
#1 New York Yankees 14 10 4 80 51 29
#2 Minnesota Twins 7 5 2 38 20 18
#3 San Francisco Giants 8 5 3 37 27 10
#4 Tampa Bay Rays 7 5 2 36 29 7
#5 Atlanta Braves 12 6 6 53 47 6
#6 Florida Marlins 7 5 2 33 28 5
#7 Philadelphia Phillies 6 3 3 22 20 2
#8 Los Angeles Dodgers 6 3 3 30 34 -4
#9 Colorado Rockies 4 1 3 13 17 -4
#10 St. Louis Cardinals 2 0 2 1 6 -5
#11 Toronto Blue Jays 8 3 5 32 40 -8
#12 Chicago Cubs 3 1 2 9 19 -10
#13 Los Angeles Angels 12 6 6 47 58 -11
#14 Texas Rangers 9 2 7 32 46 -14
#15 Boston Red Sox 13 4 9 46 72 -26


CHAMPIONSHIP STANDINGS (VS. CHAMPIONSHIP TEAMS):

POSITION TEAM GAMES PLAYED WINS LOSSES RUNS SCORED RUNS ALLOWED RUN DIFF
#1 Milwaukee Brewers 6 4 2 50 21 29
#2 San Diego Padres 8 6 2 43 24 19
#3 Seattle Mariners 15 8 7 62 48 14
#4 Oakland Athletics 13 8 5 51 41 10
#5 Arizona Diamondbacks 9 4 5 47 41 6
#6 Washington Nationals 6 4 2 31 27 4
#7 Houston Astros 2 2 0 9 5 4
#8 New York Mets 3 1 2 13 11 2
#9 Kansas City Royals 6 3 3 32 31 1
#10 Detroit Tigers 12 7 5 58 61 -3
#11 Chicago White Sox 8 3 5 32 36 -4
#12 Cleveland Indians 11 6 5 44 49 -5
#13 Baltimore Orioles 7 1 6 19 32 -13
#14 Cincinnati Reds 5 0 5 14 29 -15
#15 Pittsburgh Pirates 11 4 7 33 82 -49

As you can see, it is not the season to be a Pirates fan. That is not a typo above. They really have allowed 61 more runs than they have driven in. Their disastrous series against the Brewers, in which they were outscored 36-1 did not help matters. This series, incidentally, also propelled Los Cervezeros to the top of the true Championship division this week. We'll see how they are in a month or so.

Running the risk of making judgments from a small sample size, one of the starkest contrasts between the two Premiership standings is the Rays. Though they sit atop the MLB board with +44 RD, their performance against Prem clubs has yielded a paltry +7 RD. On the other hand, the Braves seem to have the opposite problem: a +6 RD against the top tier teams, but -11 vs. the Championship.

That's all for now, kids. I'll catch you next Saturday if I don't give an op-ed piece before.

Friday, April 23, 2010

Notes on the rules of the game

Since questions have arisen about some of the rules of Premiership Baseball, let me clarify a few things. If you don't care about anything but the standings, skip to the bottom for a piece of news you'll want to know.

First, I reconsidered how many team should be promoted/relegated at each season's conclusion. Five seems a bit too many, so the new rule is that the top 2 finishers in the Championship move up to the Premiership, and the #3 and #4 teams have a one-game playoff for the right to promotion.

Second, Premiership baseball would not practice the DH rule. However, this will not affect the way I calculate the standings right now. That would be a crazy amount of work for something intended to be simple and light-hearted. Still, we've got to have principles in this league.

Third, an explanation of why Run Differential is the yardstick of success in PB. In MLB, win percentage determines who makes the playoffs. The problem with this is that sometimes the statistically best teams are shut out while a team that got hot down the stretch or got lucky makes the grade. PB rewards teams on their merits -- above average hitting, pitching, or both. MLB rewards these as well, but not to the same degree. PB eliminates a lot of the luck factor in the standings without removing it from the actual baseball games. Fallible human umpires are a conrnerstone of the PB system. Sometimes you get the calls, sometimes you don't.

Team strategies for victory wouldn't change either. Look at this year's Red Sox. They upgraded on defense at several positions, which should theoretically cut down on their runs allowed. However, they've still managed to allow the second-most runs in the AL, and their bats have been silent. Their all-around anemia has resulted in poor positioning in the standings in MLB and PB alike.

For another look at RD, let's take the 2005 playoffs, where MLB saw the White Sox vie for the World Series title. The Cleveland Indians scored 51 more runs than the White Sox that year and allowed 2 fewer runs. They were, statistically speaking, the best team in the AL Central, and probably the best in the league. But they didn't even make the playoffs because the White Sox were extremely lucky, and they were a bit unlucky. Or consider the San Diego Padres, who made the playoffs with a negative run differential and (if you're into this sort of thing) a W/L record of 82-80. There were only six teams in the NL with worse RD that season -- luckily for the Pads, four of those teams happened to be in their division.

If you like luck in baseball, then the mid-season tournament mentioned previously should be your cup of tea. Since it's single-elimination, the upsets could pile up quickly and lead to plenty of interesting scenarios that the MLB playoffs could never rival. I believe fans would look forward to this tournament every year as least as much as they anticipate the postseason now, and probably more.

-------------------THE BOTTOM-----------------------

Who's climbing the promotion stepladder? Who's drifting closer to relegation? Find out Saturdays until the end of the season, as I post the latest league standings and discuss teams' performances.

Wednesday, April 21, 2010

Standings through 4/20/10

Behold, the inaugural standings for 2010 Premiership Baseball!

Some interesting notes: the Twins have played 14 games, but only half of those games have come against other Premiership teams. They're in the top 3 in both standings, though. Two teams have not played ANY of their games against division opponents (St. Louis and Houston). The Yankees are on top by both methods of reckoning ... and the Red Sox are last in both. And if you look solely at games played against Championship opponents, the Nationals are in 5th and vying for that premiership spot.Behold, the inaugural standings for 2010 Premiership Baseball!

PREMIERSHIP STANDINGS (ALL MLB)

POSITION TEAM GAMES PLAYED WINS LOSSES RUNS SCORED RUNS ALLOWED RUN DIFF
#1 New York Yankees 13 10 3 76 47 29
#2 Philadelphia Phillies 13 8 5 81 53 28
#3 Minnesota Twins 14 10 4 74 48 26
#4 San Francisco Giants 14 8 6 71 45 26
#5 Tampa Bay Rays 14 10 4 71 52 19
#6 St. Louis Cardinals 14 9 5 66 49 17
#7 Colorado Rockies 14 7 7 70 57 13
#8 Atlanta Braves 13 8 5 64 57 7
#9 Toronto Blue Jays 16 9 7 72 66 6
#10 Florida Marlins 14 8 6 73 69 4
#11 Texas Rangers 13 5 8 52 53 -1
#12 Los Angeles Dodgers 13 6 7 79 81 -2
#13 Los Angeles Angels 15 8 7 60 74 -14
#14 Chicago Cubs 14 5 9 53 68 -15
#15 Boston Red Sox 14 5 9 57 75 -18


CHAMPIONSHIP STANDINGS (ALL MLB):


POSITION TEAM GAMES PLAYED WINS LOSSES RUNS SCORED RUNS ALLOWED RUN DIFF
#1 Oakland Athletics 15 9 6 65 54 11
#2 New York Mets 14 6 8 58 50 8
#3 San Diego Padres 14 8 6 59 51 8
#4 Seattle Mariners 15 8 7 66 63 3
#5 Arizona Diamondbacks 14 6 8 77 74 3
#6 Chicago White Sox 14 5 9 57 56 1
#7 Detroit Tigers 14 7 7 63 69 -6
#8 Milwaukee Brewers 13 6 7 69 76 -7
#9 Cleveland Indians 13 6 7 46 55 -9
#10 Cincinnati Reds 14 6 8 64 78 -14
#11 Kansas City Royals 15 6 9 71 86 -15
#12 Washington Nationals 14 7 7 69 89 -20
#13 Houston Astros 13 4 9 35 62 -27
#14 Pittsburgh Pirates 13 7 6 54 83 -29
#15 Baltimore Orioles 15 2 13 45 77 -32


PREMIERSHIP STANDINGS (VS. PREMIERSHIP TEAMS):


POSITION TEAM GAMES PLAYED WINS LOSSES RUNS SCORED RUNS ALLOWED RUN DIFF
#1 New York Yankees 12 9 3 69 44 25
#2 Minnesota Twins 7 5 2 38 20 18
#3 Atlanta Braves 10 6 4 50 37 13
#4 Tampa Bay Rays 7 5 2 36 29 7
#5 San Francisco Giants 6 3 3 31 26 5
#6 Florida Marlins 6 4 2 29 27 2
#7 St. Louis Cardinals 0 0 0 0 0 0
#8 Toronto Blue Jays 6 2 4 23 26 -3
#9 Los Angeles Dodgers 6 3 3 30 34 -4
#10 Philadelphia Phillies 4 1 3 12 17 -5
#11 Colorado Rockies 3 1 2 8 13 -5
#12 Los Angeles Angels 10 5 5 40 47 -7
#13 Chicago Cubs 3 1 2 9 19 -10
#14 Texas Rangers 7 1 6 22 38 -16
#15 Boston Red Sox 11 3 8 38 62 -24

CHAMPIONSHIP STANDINGS (VS. CHAMPIONSHIP TEAMS):

POSITION TEAM GAMES PLAYED WINS LOSSES RUNS SCORED RUNS ALLOWED RUN DIFF
#1 Seattle Mariners 12 7 5 48 35 13
#2 San Diego Padres 6 4 2 28 20 8
#3 Arizona Diamondbacks 9 4 5 47 41 6
#4 Oakland Athletics 11 7 4 40 35 5
#5 Washington Nationals 6 4 2 31 27 4
#6 New York Mets 3 1 2 13 11 2
#7 Milwaukee Brewers 4 2 2 22 21 1
#8 Kansas City Royals 6 3 3 32 31 1
#9 Cleveland Indians 9 5 4 38 38 0
#10 Houston Astros 0 0 0 0 0 0
#11 Detroit Tigers 12 7 5 58 61 -3
#12 Cincinnati Reds 3 0 3 10 14 -4
#13 Chicago White Sox 6 1 5 20 26 -6
#14 Baltimore Orioles 6 1 5 18 28 -10
#15 Pittsburgh Pirates 7 4 3 28 45 -17

Discuss.

The Inaugural Season

Welcome to the Inaugural 2010 Season of Premiership Baseball! Here I will explain the theory and the practice behind an idea I dreamed up this month (though maybe someone else has beaten me to it, I'm claiming it as my own). In theory, it would revolutionize baseball as we know it. In practice, it's a fresh way to look at America's Pastime.

With all the talk of realignment in MLB recently, I had an odd thought. It would never happen, and I'd be opposed to it myself for historical reasons. However, please participate in a little experiment with me. Imagine, if you will, a world where Major League Baseball operates on a system similar to that of English Premier League soccer.


Let's start with the theory of the plan. We'll need upper and lower baseball divisions (no, not the American and National leagues; work with me here). I think the fairest way to do this at the moment is to split the teams up into two groups: those with a positive run differential in 2009, and everyone else. Happily, this criterion gives us two groups of 15 clubs. I have decided to name the two groups as they do across the channel -- Premiership is the upper division, and Championship is the lower. Here's how the two shake out:


Premiership Baseball (highest to lowest run differential):

Los Angeles Dodgers

New York Yankees

Boston Red Sox

Los Angeles Angels
Philadelphia Phillies

Atlanta Braves

St. Louis Cardinals

Colorado Rockies

Minnesota Twins

Tampa Bay Rays

San Francisco Giants

Texas Rangers

Chicago Cubs

Toronto Blue Jays

Florida Marlins


Championship Baseball (highest to lowest run differential):

Detroit Tigers

Oakland Athletics

Chicago White Sox
Milwaukee Brewers

Cincinnati Reds

Seattle Mariners

Arizona Diamondbacks

New York Mets

Cleveland Indians

Houston Astros

San Diego Padres

Pittsburgh Pirates

Baltimore Orioles

Kansas City Royals

Washington Nationals


If this were a real league scenario, the teams in each league would compete within their league. The All-Star break is toast, replaced by a mid-to-late season FA Cup-style tournament involving all 30 teams ... and their AAA clubs just for kicks. Who wouldn't watch the Durham Bulls beat the Orioles? And what does the winning team get? What's on the line? A shiny trophy and bragging rights! Certainly not homefield advantage for the World Series!

The teams that finish 1-4 in Premiership play do the usual best-of-seven postseason to determine the overall season victor, because we can't do away with the Fall Classic. The bottom 5 teams in RD in the Premiership get relegated down to the Championship. The top 2 in the Championship get promoted to the premiership; the teams that finish 3-4 in Championship play have a 1-game playoff at #3's home park for the right to promotion. The teams at the bottom of the Championship get to wonder why their front offices make such horrible decisions.


Farm systems remain intact to feed the big league clubs. Venues would remain unaffected, and travel would not be so much more difficult than it is now. Hard to say how this would affect revenue -- certain rivalries would be eliminated in some years, but undoubtedly new rivalries would arise.

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Enough of the theory; let's get to the practice. I'll be keeping track of W/L and RD stats within both divisions throughout the season. It's easy to just jot down the scores from real MLB games and figure the standings based on these. However, I'll also keep track of W/L and RD within the divisions.
See the standings that follow this post for details on how that works. You'll pick it up quickly, I promise.

If it holds my interest enough, maybe I keep it going. There are several baseball sim programs that I could use to run something like this, but player data for 2010 won't be available until the season's over, so to get an accurate read on this whole scheme, we'll have to wait. Until then, welcome to the site, and play ball!

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