Friday, July 22, 2011

100 Games in -- Let's Go

Well, the 2011 MLB season has been well underway for some time -- more than enough to get a nice sample size in both the Premiership and Championship divisions of baseball. I want to start out with a big old tip of the cap to http://www.baseball-reference.com, without which this site would be impossible.

This season, I've overhauled the Excel spreadsheet, dramatically increasing its robust productivity (robustivity) to bring the data to you more quickly. I might even go weekly here, people. Take a moment to catch your breath.

First, a brief reminder of what Premiership baseball is all about:
  • The current MLB measure of success is the win. Win a much higher percentage of games than you lose (within a roughly-geographical grouping of other teams within yet another group decided by the presence of pitchers in the lineup as a matter of course), and you go to something called the "playoffs," an elimination tournament wherein the last team standing is crowned World Series Champion (of the only two countries in the known world). Luck is nice and all, but I think we can do better.
  • The rawest measure of a baseball team's success is how well they A) score runs and B) prevent the opponent from scoring runs. Subtract their runs allowed from their runs scored and you get run differential (RD), which is how I'll judge success.
  • I started out by splitting the major league clubs into two divisions based on their 2009 end-of-season RD -- the Premiership (teams with positive RD) and the Championship (teams with negative RD). At the end of every season, the three (note: number subject to change) teams with the lowest RD in the Premiership switch places with the teams holding the highest RD in the Championship.
At the end of last season, the Dodgers, Marlins and Blue Jays suffered relegation, while the Padres, Reds and A's earned a year's stay in the top flight. So after 100 games, I'm eager to see how things are shaping up in 2011.

PREMIERSHIP STANDINGS (MLB)

POSITION TEAM GAMES PLAYED WINS LOSSES RUNS SCORED RUNS ALLOWED RUN DIFF Win PCG
#1 Boston Red Sox 96 59 37 519 401 118 0.615
#2 New York Yankees 96 57 39 486 369 117 0.594
#3 Philadelphia Phillies 97 61 36 415 322 93 0.629
#4 Texas Rangers 99 56 43 489 416 73 0.566
#5 Atlanta Braves 99 58 41 408 351 57 0.586
#6 Tampa Bay Rays 97 52 45 403 371 32 0.536
#7 Cincinnati Reds 98 48 50 450 422 28 0.490
#8 St. Louis Cardinals 98 51 47 456 429 27 0.520
#9 San Francisco Giants 99 57 42 361 343 18 0.576
#10 Los Angeles Angels 99 53 46 376 365 11 0.535
#11 Colorado Rockies 99 47 52 446 443 3 0.475
#12 Oakland Athletics 98 43 55 345 363 -18 0.439
#13 San Diego Padres 99 44 55 344 363 -19 0.444
#14 Minnesota Twins 98 46 52 380 449 -69 0.469
#15 Chicago Cubs 99 39 60 397 500 -103 0.394


CHAMPIONSHIP STANDINGS (MLB)

POSITION TEAM GAMES PLAYED WINS LOSSES RUNS SCORED RUNS ALLOWED RUN DIFF Win PCG
#1 Toronto Blue Jays 99 50 49 476 451 25 0.505
#2 Pittsburgh Pirates 96 51 45 373 360 13 0.531
#3 New York Mets 98 49 49 430 422 8 0.500
#4 Arizona Diamondbacks 99 53 46 439 432 7 0.535
#5 Cleveland Indians 97 51 46 425 419 6 0.526
#6 Chicago White Sox 98 47 51 390 397 -7 0.480
#7 Milwaukee Brewers 100 53 47 436 444 -8 0.530
#8 Washington Nationals 98 48 50 379 388 -9 0.490
#9 Detroit Tigers 98 52 46 438 449 -11 0.531
#10 Los Angeles Dodgers 98 43 55 353 394 -41 0.439
#11 Seattle Mariners 98 43 55 319 360 -41 0.439
#12 Florida Marlins 99 47 52 389 433 -44 0.475
#13 Kansas City Royals 98 40 58 422 474 -52 0.408
#14 Baltimore Orioles 95 39 56 394 497 -103 0.411
#15 Houston Astros 98 33 65 381 492 -111 0.337

PREMIERSHIP STANDINGS (TRUE)

POSITION TEAM GAMES PLAYED WINS LOSSES RUN DIFF CHAMP RD
#1 Philadelphia Phillies 43 27 16 43 50
#2 New York Yankees 45 26 19 31 86
#3 Cincinnati Reds 40 22 18 27 1
#4 Boston Red Sox 46 29 17 23 95
#5 Tampa Bay Rays 44 23 21 23 9
#6 Texas Rangers 44 21 23 4 69
#7 Atlanta Braves 44 24 20 -2 59
#8 San Francisco Giants 50 28 22 -6 24
#9 Colorado Rockies 42 18 24 -6 9
#10 St. Louis Cardinals 45 23 22 -8 35
#11 Minnesota Twins 35 16 19 -8 -61
#12 Los Angeles Angels 47 21 26 -14 25
#13 Oakland Athletics 45 19 26 -23 5
#14 San Diego Padres 50 20 30 -29 10
#15 Chicago Cubs 42 14 28 -55 -48

CHAMPIONSHIP STANDINGS (TRUE)

POSITION TEAM GAMES PLAYED WINS LOSSES PREM DIFF RUN DIFF
#1 Cleveland Indians 44 29 15 -51 57
#2 New York Mets 43 26 17 -41 49
#3 Milwaukee Brewers 33 20 13 0 32
#4 Toronto Blue Jays 39 21 18 1 24
#5 Arizona Diamondbacks 45 25 20 0 7
#6 Chicago White Sox 45 21 24 -12 5
#7 Florida Marlins 44 23 21 -43 -1
#8 Washington Nationals 50 25 25 -8 -1
#9 Baltimore Orioles 41 21 20 -89 -14
#10 Pittsburgh Pirates 54 26 28 29 -16
#11 Los Angeles Dodgers 36 15 21 -24 -17
#12 Detroit Tigers 55 28 27 7 -18
#13 Seattle Mariners 42 15 27 -9 -32
#14 Houston Astros 46 18 28 -77 -34
#15 Kansas City Royals 43 17 26 -11 -41

Now, in the Premiership, newly advanced Oakland and San Diego find themselves in trouble, along with my beloved Cubs, who barely made the cut in 2010. It's a similar tale of woe for the recently demerited -- if the season ended today, the Jays, Marlins and Dodgers would remain in the relegation pool, giving way to the unlikely trio of Cleveland, Milwaukee, and the Mets. But with 60+ games remaining, anything could happen.

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One more note: in last season's concluding post, I noted that the teams with the highest CRD (Championship run differential) either made the playoffs or were edged out by another team on the list within their division. If we apply the same criterion to the current standings, then this (very rudimentary) rubric finds the following clubs playing in October (* indicates a fair [read: completely nonmathematical] degree of certainty):

*Boston 95 -- AL East Champions
*NY Yankees 86 -- AL Wild Card
*Texas 69 -- AL West Champions
Atlanta 59 -- NL East Champions
*Cleveland 57 -- AL Central Champions
Philadelphia 50 -- NL Wild Card
St. Louis 35 -- NL Central Champions
*San Francisco 24 -- NL West Champions

The race for the NL Central is very, very close -- the Cards have only a 3-run advantage over Milwaukee. And I have to mention: for the second year in a row, the Pirates are on track to do twice as well against the top teams as against the second-tier sides. I don't see them making the playoffs.

But I do see them finishing about .500 for the first time since 1992.

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