THE ACHILLES
BOSTON: It's been a busy off-season for the Red Sox, acquiring slugger Adrian Gonzalez and speedy Carl Crawford. If they have good luck with injuries and get anything close to Josh Beckett's full potential, this team will have to throw the postseason to keep from going all the way. They led the Premiership with +57 PRD, despite finishing 9th in the MLB standings. I could see them winning over 100 games this year...if they stop playing down to their opponents (+17 CRD). That might end up being the Sox' Achilles heel, for reasons you'll soon see.
THE CONTENDERS
TAMPA BAY RAYS: The Sunbeams were #2 in both tables last year, giving them the highest average position. Their rotation loses Matt Garza to my Cubs, but they have more than enough back-up waiting in the wings. There's no way they can replace Carl Crawford, but they still have a solid section of the line-up that scored over 800 runs last season.
PHILADELPHIA: What are the odds running on a Philadelphia/Boston World Series? The Phils finished tied for third with +40 PRD, and now they have Cliff Lee and Domonic Brown coming in to help out. Injuries can bite any team, and their big bats aren't getting any younger, but with that rotation, how could they lose? Maybe we'll find out.
THE QUESTION MARK
ST. LOUIS: Tied with Philadelphia in 3rd, the Cardinals didn't even make the postseason, losing out to Championship winners Cincinnati, and trailing them by 70 CRD. With the Brewers looking mightier, Adam Wainwright's shoulder status uncertain, and Albert's deadline looming, the Redbirds may just have more on their minds than getting on base and making bats miss. Any baseball lifer will tell you that when you lose that focus, it's bad news for team performance.
THE STALWART
ATLANTA: The Schema will have to adjust to life with Bobby Cox, but as the team that finished 5th in the Premiership with +30 PRD, they should be in good shape for 2011. Chipper Jones may be staring at his final season, but the future looks bright in Atlanta as Jason Heyward, Tommy Hanson, and perhaps Freddie Freeman and Mike Minor take the reins. If only they didn't play in the Phillies' division. Also, Tommy and Freddie? Is it the '70s?
THE WORLD CHAMPIONS
SAN FRANCISCO: The Giants finished 4th in MLBRD but 6th in PRD, at +16. It's not so far-fetched, then, that they could win the World Series by catching the right breaks at the right times. It is, after all, not how you're good, but when you're good. San Fran feasted on weak teams in 2010, and teams with that talent tended to make the postseason. With all the extra wear on young pitching arms, though, I'd be willing to bet they don't get back there this year, especially not with the next team hot on their heels.
TREADING WATER
COLORADO: Coming in at number seven with a meager +6 PRD, a busy offseason saw the Pikemen do more extending current players than wheeling and dealing. A full season from Troy Tulowitzki and a knack for beating the minnows might be all they need to unseat the Division-winning Giants., who nearly doubled them up in CRD.
NEW YORK YANKEES: Baseball's winningest franchise finished dead middle of the pack, peeking just into the black with +4 PRD. Dead-middle now describes the Yankees pitching situation. Who's going to fill the 3-5 spots in their rotation? With a collection of questionable innings-eaters invited to spring training, will the Bronx Bombers finish next Premiership season in the red?
MINNESOTA: The Twins won a weak AL Central in 2010, mostly without Justin Morneau, and they have their work cut out for them with Detroit and White Sox both going all-out to win the Hot Stove league. A returning Joe Nathan may lock down the ninth inning, but the real action here is a largely unknown and highly underestimated rotation. There's plenty of work to be done as Minnesota finished with -2 PRD but a +112 CRD is very reassuring.
THE END OF AN ERA
LOS ANGELES ANGELS OF ANAHEIM: What a mess. The Team of Two Cities finished with a -14 PRD, and they could only manage -7 against the Championship. Then they trade away their best-hitting catcher and a serviceable outfielder for the worst contract in baseball this winter? If Mike Scoscia can wrestle this team above .500, he should be Manager of the Year.
MEDIOCRITY IN PERPETUO
CHICAGO CUBS: Woe, woe, woe for the home team at Wrigley Field! The Cubs slot in at eleventh in the Premiership as yet another anomalous team who was actually worse against the Championship (-23 PRD/-59 CRD). Speaking of Mikes managerial, Mike Quade may have a long journey ahead of him with a club under the weight of Alfonso Soriano's contract and perennial expectations. If he can make it to 2013, things might improve. But probably not before.
MEDIOCRITY UNTIL VERY RECENTLY
TEXAS: The Rangers made their first World Series in franchise history last year (you might have heard about that), but they promptly lost to a team that hadn't won the whole she-bang since they moved the entire operation across the country. With a whopping +135 CRD, Arlington looks stellar against the little fish, but put up a disappointing -35 against their fellow premiership sides.
THE BOTTOM THREE
TORONTO: It's not really fair to the Blue Jays to lump them in with the last two, as they best the next lowest finisher by 20 RD. They play in the toughest division in baseball, and now that the Orioles have lost their minds under Showalter (for the better), they may not even be the best team in their division named after a bird. But hey, at least they jettisoned Vernon Wells without having to eat any of his salary. Smashing success this winter, then, eh?
LOS ANGELES DODGERS: Embroiled in a vicious divorce case in a large tv market, prospects taking a step back, the Trolley Dodgers ended up at -60 PRD, just four runs out of last place in the premiership. This is not the way to spend Vin Scully's last years as a broadcaster.
FLORIDA: By the time the Marlins recover from a season in which they finished at a +2 RD, we may officially be calling them the Miami Marlins. A farm system depleted by promotion-by-necessity will certainly rebound soon.
Next up: The final league tables, and an interesting insight into 2010's playoff squads.
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