100 Games in -- Let's Go

Well, the 2011 MLB season has been well underway for some time -- more than enough to get a nice sample size in both the Premiership and Championship divisions of baseball. I want to start out with a big old tip of the cap to http://www.baseball-reference.com, without which this site would be impossible.

This season, I've overhauled the Excel spreadsheet, dramatically increasing its robust productivity (robustivity) to bring the data to you more quickly. I might even go weekly here, people. Take a moment to catch your breath.

First, a brief reminder of what Premiership baseball is all about:

• The current MLB measure of success is the win. Win a much higher percentage of games than you lose (within a roughly-geographical grouping of other teams within yet another group decided by the presence of pitchers in the lineup as a matter of course), and you go to something called the "playoffs," an elimination tournament wherein the last team standing is crowned World Series Champion (of the only two countries in the known world). Luck is nice and all, but I think we can do better.
• The rawest measure of a baseball team's success is how well they A) score runs and B) prevent the opponent from scoring runs. Subtract their runs allowed from their runs scored and you get run differential (RD), which is how I'll judge success.
• I started out by splitting the major league clubs into two divisions based on their 2009 end-of-season RD -- the Premiership (teams with positive RD) and the Championship (teams with negative RD). At the end of every season, the three (note: number subject to change) teams with the lowest RD in the Premiership switch places with the teams holding the highest RD in the Championship.

At the end of last season, the Dodgers, Marlins and Blue Jays suffered relegation, while the Padres, Reds and A's earned a year's stay in the top flight. So after 100 games, I'm eager to see how things are shaping up in 2011.

PREMIERSHIP STANDINGS (MLB)

POSITION	TEAM	GAMES PLAYED	WINS	LOSSES	RUNS SCORED	RUNS ALLOWED	RUN DIFF	Win PCG
#1	Boston Red Sox	96	59	37	519	401	118	0.615
#2	New York Yankees	96	57	39	486	369	117	0.594
#3	Philadelphia Phillies	97	61	36	415	322	93	0.629
#4	Texas Rangers	99	56	43	489	416	73	0.566
#5	Atlanta Braves	99	58	41	408	351	57	0.586
#6	Tampa Bay Rays	97	52	45	403	371	32	0.536
#7	Cincinnati Reds	98	48	50	450	422	28	0.490
#8	St. Louis Cardinals	98	51	47	456	429	27	0.520
#9	San Francisco Giants	99	57	42	361	343	18	0.576
#10	Los Angeles Angels	99	53	46	376	365	11	0.535
#11	Colorado Rockies	99	47	52	446	443	3	0.475
#12	Oakland Athletics	98	43	55	345	363	-18	0.439
#13	San Diego Padres	99	44	55	344	363	-19	0.444
#14	Minnesota Twins	98	46	52	380	449	-69	0.469
#15	Chicago Cubs	99	39	60	397	500	-103	0.394

CHAMPIONSHIP STANDINGS (MLB)

POSITION	TEAM	GAMES PLAYED	WINS	LOSSES	RUNS SCORED	RUNS ALLOWED	RUN DIFF	Win PCG
#1	Toronto Blue Jays	99	50	49	476	451	25	0.505
#2	Pittsburgh Pirates	96	51	45	373	360	13	0.531
#3	New York Mets	98	49	49	430	422	8	0.500
#4	Arizona Diamondbacks	99	53	46	439	432	7	0.535
#5	Cleveland Indians	97	51	46	425	419	6	0.526
#6	Chicago White Sox	98	47	51	390	397	-7	0.480
#7	Milwaukee Brewers	100	53	47	436	444	-8	0.530
#8	Washington Nationals	98	48	50	379	388	-9	0.490
#9	Detroit Tigers	98	52	46	438	449	-11	0.531
#10	Los Angeles Dodgers	98	43	55	353	394	-41	0.439
#11	Seattle Mariners	98	43	55	319	360	-41	0.439
#12	Florida Marlins	99	47	52	389	433	-44	0.475
#13	Kansas City Royals	98	40	58	422	474	-52	0.408
#14	Baltimore Orioles	95	39	56	394	497	-103	0.411
#15	Houston Astros	98	33	65	381	492	-111	0.337

PREMIERSHIP STANDINGS (TRUE)

POSITION	TEAM	GAMES PLAYED	WINS	LOSSES	RUN DIFF	CHAMP RD
#1	Philadelphia Phillies	43	27	16	43	50
#2	New York Yankees	45	26	19	31	86
#3	Cincinnati Reds	40	22	18	27	1
#4	Boston Red Sox	46	29	17	23	95
#5	Tampa Bay Rays	44	23	21	23	9
#6	Texas Rangers	44	21	23	4	69
#7	Atlanta Braves	44	24	20	-2	59
#8	San Francisco Giants	50	28	22	-6	24
#9	Colorado Rockies	42	18	24	-6	9
#10	St. Louis Cardinals	45	23	22	-8	35
#11	Minnesota Twins	35	16	19	-8	-61
#12	Los Angeles Angels	47	21	26	-14	25
#13	Oakland Athletics	45	19	26	-23	5
#14	San Diego Padres	50	20	30	-29	10
#15	Chicago Cubs	42	14	28	-55	-48

CHAMPIONSHIP STANDINGS (TRUE)

POSITION	TEAM	GAMES PLAYED	WINS	LOSSES	PREM DIFF	RUN DIFF
#1	Cleveland Indians	44	29	15	-51	57
#2	New York Mets	43	26	17	-41	49
#3	Milwaukee Brewers	33	20	13	0	32
#4	Toronto Blue Jays	39	21	18	1	24
#5	Arizona Diamondbacks	45	25	20	0	7
#6	Chicago White Sox	45	21	24	-12	5
#7	Florida Marlins	44	23	21	-43	-1
#8	Washington Nationals	50	25	25	-8	-1
#9	Baltimore Orioles	41	21	20	-89	-14
#10	Pittsburgh Pirates	54	26	28	29	-16
#11	Los Angeles Dodgers	36	15	21	-24	-17
#12	Detroit Tigers	55	28	27	7	-18
#13	Seattle Mariners	42	15	27	-9	-32
#14	Houston Astros	46	18	28	-77	-34
#15	Kansas City Royals	43	17	26	-11	-41

Now, in the Premiership, newly advanced Oakland and San Diego find themselves in trouble, along with my beloved Cubs, who barely made the cut in 2010. It's a similar tale of woe for the recently demerited -- if the season ended today, the Jays, Marlins and Dodgers would remain in the relegation pool, giving way to the unlikely trio of Cleveland, Milwaukee, and the Mets. But with 60+ games remaining, anything could happen.

====================================================================

One more note: in last season's concluding post, I noted that the teams with the highest CRD (Championship run differential) either made the playoffs or were edged out by another team on the list within their division. If we apply the same criterion to the current standings, then this (very rudimentary) rubric finds the following clubs playing in October (* indicates a fair [read: completely nonmathematical] degree of certainty):

*Boston 95 -- AL East Champions

*NY Yankees 86 -- AL Wild Card

*Texas 69 -- AL West Champions

Atlanta 59 -- NL East Champions

*Cleveland 57 -- AL Central Champions

Philadelphia 50 -- NL Wild Card

St. Louis 35 -- NL Central Champions

*San Francisco 24 -- NL West Champions

The race for the NL Central is very, very close -- the Cards have only a 3-run advantage over Milwaukee. And I have to mention: for the second year in a row, the Pirates are on track to do twice as well against the top teams as against the second-tier sides. I don't see them making the playoffs.

But I do see them finishing about .500 for the first time since 1992.

Promotion, Relegation, and an Old Adage Proves True

All right, for your perusal, the final 2010 Premiership Baseball League tables:

PREMIERSHIP STANDINGS (TRUE)

POSITION	TEAM	GAMES PLAYED	WINS	LOSSES	RUN DIFF	CHAMP RD	LAST TIME
#1	Boston Red Sox	94	54	40	57	17	#2
#2	Tampa Bay Rays	86	48	38	45	108	#1
#3	St. Louis Cardinals	62	33	29	40	55	#4
#4	Philadelphia Phillies	84	49	35	40	92	#5
#5	Atlanta Braves	77	40	37	30	79	#3
#6	San Francisco Giants	75	40	35	16	98	#6
#7	Colorado Rockies	80	37	43	6	47	#7
#8	New York Yankees	82	40	42	4	162	#8
#9	Minnesota Twins	54	27	27	-2	112	#9
#10	Los Angeles Angels	77	36	41	-14	-7	#10
#11	Chicago Cubs	58	29	29	-23	-59	#11
#12	Texas Rangers	69	32	37	-35	135	#12
#13	Toronto Blue Jays	94	44	50	-40	67	#13
#14	Los Angeles Dodgers	82	35	47	-60	35	#14
#15	Florida Marlins	76	31	45	-64	66	#15

CHAMPIONSHIP STANDINGS (TRUE)

POSITION	TEAM	GAMES PLAYED	WINS	LOSSES	RUN DIFF	PREM RD	LAST TIME
#1	Cincinnati Reds	86	54	32	126	-21	#2
#2	San Diego Padres	65	41	24	103	-19	#1
#3	Oakland Athletics	68	43	25	88	-51	#3
#4	Chicago White Sox	86	49	37	50	-2	#7
#5	Detroit Tigers	90	49	41	37	-29	#9
#6	Milwaukee Brewers	77	41	36	22	-76	#4
#7	New York Mets	66	35	31	13	-9	#5
#8	Arizona Diamondbacks	61	28	33	-6	-117	#10
#9	Washington Nationals	76	35	41	-18	-69	#11
#10	Cleveland Indians	91	42	49	-22	-84	#12
#11	Kansas City Royals	87	41	46	-50	-119	#6
#12	Seattle Mariners	74	32	42	-50	-135	#8
#13	Baltimore Orioles	60	25	35	-51	-121	#14
#14	Houston Astros	78	37	41	-57	-61	#13
#15	Pittsburgh Pirates	86	23	63	-185	-94	#15

So now, the moment we've all been waiting for: the official promotion and relegation for the 2011 Premiership Baseball season! We'll keep this simple, and just like its soccer cousins -- bottom three in PRD get relegated, top three in CRD get promoted. That means that Toronto, Dodgers, and Florida are out, and Cincinnati, San Diego, and Oakland are in!

To the winners, welcome to the big show! To the unlucky demotees, best of luck on a swift return.

Now, there's one more thing I've noticed that I'd like to address. Watch what happens when we line up this year's top ten teams in CRD (run differential against Championship clubs):

YANKEES: 162
TEXAS: 135
CINCINNATI: 126
MINNESOTA: 112
TAMPA: 108
SAN DIEGO: 103
SAN FRANCISCO: 98
PHILADELPHIA: 92
OAKLAND: 88
ATLANTA: 79

Notice anything interesting? What you have there are the eight 2010 MLB playoff teams, San Diego (who lost their spot on the last day of the season), and Oakland. Compare Boston, who won the Premiership but had only a +17 CRD and missed the playoffs. Here might just be proof positive that good teams don't beat themselves.

That's all for 2010. Pitchers and catchers have reported, so it's good luck to all squads in 2011!

2010 Season Wrap-Up Part 2: the Premiership

Remember when I said I was patting myself on the back for finishing the recap before pitchers and catchers. Looks like I'm gonna have to jump...

THE ACHILLES

BOSTON: It's been a busy off-season for the Red Sox, acquiring slugger Adrian Gonzalez and speedy Carl Crawford. If they have good luck with injuries and get anything close to Josh Beckett's full potential, this team will have to throw the postseason to keep from going all the way. They led the Premiership with +57 PRD, despite finishing 9th in the MLB standings. I could see them winning over 100 games this year...if they stop playing down to their opponents (+17 CRD). That might end up being the Sox' Achilles heel, for reasons you'll soon see.

THE CONTENDERS

TAMPA BAY RAYS: The Sunbeams were #2 in both tables last year, giving them the highest average position. Their rotation loses Matt Garza to my Cubs, but they have more than enough back-up waiting in the wings. There's no way they can replace Carl Crawford, but they still have a solid section of the line-up that scored over 800 runs last season.

PHILADELPHIA: What are the odds running on a Philadelphia/Boston World Series? The Phils finished tied for third with +40 PRD, and now they have Cliff Lee and Domonic Brown coming in to help out. Injuries can bite any team, and their big bats aren't getting any younger, but with that rotation, how could they lose? Maybe we'll find out.

THE QUESTION MARK

ST. LOUIS: Tied with Philadelphia in 3rd, the Cardinals didn't even make the postseason, losing out to Championship winners Cincinnati, and trailing them by 70 CRD. With the Brewers looking mightier, Adam Wainwright's shoulder status uncertain, and Albert's deadline looming, the Redbirds may just have more on their minds than getting on base and making bats miss. Any baseball lifer will tell you that when you lose that focus, it's bad news for team performance.

THE STALWART

ATLANTA: The Schema will have to adjust to life with Bobby Cox, but as the team that finished 5th in the Premiership with +30 PRD, they should be in good shape for 2011. Chipper Jones may be staring at his final season, but the future looks bright in Atlanta as Jason Heyward, Tommy Hanson, and perhaps Freddie Freeman and Mike Minor take the reins. If only they didn't play in the Phillies' division. Also, Tommy and Freddie? Is it the '70s?

THE WORLD CHAMPIONS

SAN FRANCISCO: The Giants finished 4th in MLBRD but 6th in PRD, at +16. It's not so far-fetched, then, that they could win the World Series by catching the right breaks at the right times. It is, after all, not how you're good, but when you're good. San Fran feasted on weak teams in 2010, and teams with that talent tended to make the postseason. With all the extra wear on young pitching arms, though, I'd be willing to bet they don't get back there this year, especially not with the next team hot on their heels.

TREADING WATER

COLORADO: Coming in at number seven with a meager +6 PRD, a busy offseason saw the Pikemen do more extending current players than wheeling and dealing. A full season from Troy Tulowitzki and a knack for beating the minnows might be all they need to unseat the Division-winning Giants., who nearly doubled them up in CRD.

NEW YORK YANKEES: Baseball's winningest franchise finished dead middle of the pack, peeking just into the black with +4 PRD. Dead-middle now describes the Yankees pitching situation. Who's going to fill the 3-5 spots in their rotation? With a collection of questionable innings-eaters invited to spring training, will the Bronx Bombers finish next Premiership season in the red?

MINNESOTA: The Twins won a weak AL Central in 2010, mostly without Justin Morneau, and they have their work cut out for them with Detroit and White Sox both going all-out to win the Hot Stove league. A returning Joe Nathan may lock down the ninth inning, but the real action here is a largely unknown and highly underestimated rotation. There's plenty of work to be done as Minnesota finished with -2 PRD but a +112 CRD is very reassuring.

THE END OF AN ERA

LOS ANGELES ANGELS OF ANAHEIM: What a mess. The Team of Two Cities finished with a -14 PRD, and they could only manage -7 against the Championship. Then they trade away their best-hitting catcher and a serviceable outfielder for the worst contract in baseball this winter? If Mike Scoscia can wrestle this team above .500, he should be Manager of the Year.

MEDIOCRITY IN PERPETUO

CHICAGO CUBS: Woe, woe, woe for the home team at Wrigley Field! The Cubs slot in at eleventh in the Premiership as yet another anomalous team who was actually worse against the Championship (-23 PRD/-59 CRD). Speaking of Mikes managerial, Mike Quade may have a long journey ahead of him with a club under the weight of Alfonso Soriano's contract and perennial expectations. If he can make it to 2013, things might improve. But probably not before.

MEDIOCRITY UNTIL VERY RECENTLY

TEXAS: The Rangers made their first World Series in franchise history last year (you might have heard about that), but they promptly lost to a team that hadn't won the whole she-bang since they moved the entire operation across the country. With a whopping +135 CRD, Arlington looks stellar against the little fish, but put up a disappointing -35 against their fellow premiership sides.

THE BOTTOM THREE

TORONTO: It's not really fair to the Blue Jays to lump them in with the last two, as they best the next lowest finisher by 20 RD. They play in the toughest division in baseball, and now that the Orioles have lost their minds under Showalter (for the better), they may not even be the best team in their division named after a bird. But hey, at least they jettisoned Vernon Wells without having to eat any of his salary. Smashing success this winter, then, eh?

LOS ANGELES DODGERS: Embroiled in a vicious divorce case in a large tv market, prospects taking a step back, the Trolley Dodgers ended up at -60 PRD, just four runs out of last place in the premiership. This is not the way to spend Vin Scully's last years as a broadcaster.

FLORIDA: By the time the Marlins recover from a season in which they finished at a +2 RD, we may officially be calling them the Miami Marlins. A farm system depleted by promotion-by-necessity will certainly rebound soon.

Next up: The final league tables, and an interesting insight into 2010's playoff squads.

2010 Season Wrap-Up Part 1: the Championship

*blows dust off Excel spreadsheets*

*cracks neck, knuckles*

All right, kids, it's time to recap this thing. I'm patting myself on the back for getting it out the door before pitchers and catchers report for Spring Training. We set high standards of excellence around here. Let's dive into the lower division and see what we can discern, along with the conclusion of this year's Pirates Watch. We'll start with the clubs slated for promotion.

THE LOCKS

CINCINNATI: A few Championship teams clearly excelled in the True standings this year -- Cincinnati not only made the postseason but won the National League team Triple Crown. It couldn't keep them from crashing out of the NLDS in straight sets against Premiership stalwart Philadelphia, though, and the numbers tell the story. The Redlegs built up an impressive +105 run differential against Championship opponents, but against the elite, they were a disappointing -21. But considering that no Championship club finished with a positive RD against the Premiership (in fact, only eight clubs managed to do so -- more on that in later posts), Cincy can be proud of their accomplishments and almost certain promotion to the 2011 Premiership.

SAN DIEGO: The Fraticelli faithful were flummoxed in their shot at the post season, losing out on the NL West title to eventual 2010 champs San Francisco, and missing out on the wild card as well. They finished just behind Cincinnati in CRD and just ahead of them in PRD. Though the season did not go their way, they'll get their chance for revenge against the Giants in next year's Premiership.

OAKLAND: And speaking of the Bay Area, the White Elephants finished with a highly respectable RD against their Championship opponents this season. But as long as division-winners Texas outscore them in CRD by 50, there's little hope of the A's climbing out of second place in the AL West.

ON THE BUBBLE

CHICAGO WHITE SOX: The Li'l Brudders managed to finish the season with the best PRD of any Championship team at -2, twenty runs better than the crosstown rival Cubs. The pitching staff hasn't improved for 2011, but with the addition of a big bat in Adam Dunn, they may yet make their case for a prolonged stay in the Premiership.

DETROIT: Still behind the Twins and the surging Sox in the AL Central, their -29 PRD beats the A's mark of -40, but doesn't quite get them to the next level. Miggy Cabrera can't do it all by himself -- Victor Martinez will help some, and Joaquin Benoit should help nail down a shaky bullpen. They'll have to hope young staffers Scherzer, Porcello, and Galarraga can lead them to the promised land.

WAIT 'TIL NEXT YEAR

MILWAUKEE: Now, the Brewers may not seem all that impressive given their division and their finish within it, but they were actually a bit lucky in that respect, finishing with a worse PRD than cellar-dwellers Houston. Their problem was pitching and defense, allowing over 800 runs in 2010. With the addition of Cy Young winner Greinke and a solid #3 in Shawn Marcum, look for a surprising run from the Hopmen in 2011. You know, if Corey Hart and Casey McGehee don't turn into pumpkins.

TREADING WATER

NEW YORK METS: Doing just enough to finish around .500 is never going to cut it in the NL East. The Phillies and Braves are clearly ahead of them, and they're about even with the Marlins. Until someone comes along to save the franchise (Ike Davis? Johan Santana again?), this team will play for nothing more than its skipper's job every season.

ARIZONA: There's something of a divide between the Metropolitans and Slytherin here -- the Amazin's actually finished with a CRD close to zero. The Diamondbacks juuuust missed the mark at -117. But seeing as they're the only NL West club playing Championship calibre baseball, we'll give them the benefit of strength of schedule. As a side note, remember when this club had pitching galore? Brandon Webb, Dan Haren, Randy Johnson? Now they have one good player (Upton), one pretty good player (C.B. Young), one possible flash-in-the-pan (Kelly Johnson), Miguel Montero, and a rotation anchored by Joe Saunders. Let's hope Daniel Hudson lives up to his promising late-season performance.

NOT AS BAD AS YOU MIGHT THINK, BUT STILL BAD

WASHINGTON: The Nationals continue to dwell in the NL East cellar. They've found no answers at pitching besides the hope of Stephen Strasburg's elbow and overuse of Tyler Clippard, trying the likes of left-for-dead Chien-Ming Wang and probably-not-worth-three-prospects Tom Gorzelanny. They lost Adam Dunn and tried to replace him with an aging, overpaid Jayson Werth. Is it time to call up Bryce Harper yet?

CLEVELAND: Nope, it's not the lack of Grady Sizemore. It's a young rotation, a suspect bullpen, and the fact that Pronk Hafner gave up the ghost three years ago. It's tough to be optimistic about Cleveland in general these days, and the Indians aren't helping matters. Here's hoping Carlos Santana makes it back to the show soon.

EXACTLY AS BAD AS YOU MIGHT THINK

BALTIMORE: Like the D'Backs, the Flying Showalters are the only team in their division in the Championship, and with a total RD of -172, they'd likely deserve to stay there if not for a rather intriguing off-season. They dealt for free-swinging Mark Reynolds, signed the more disciplined Vlad Guerrero, overhauled the infield with Derrek Lee and J.J. Hardy, and if Matusz and Tillman can take the next step, the O's could be pleasantly frisky this season. If only they played in another division.

HOUSTON: The Astros finished on about the same level as the Orioles, made worse by their National League status and the fact that only two of the five other teams in the NL Central played at a Premiership level this season. They traded their long-time ace, El Caballo is now the Great Pumpkin, and Hunter Pence isn't the next big thing anymore. Also, they have one of the league's worst farm systems. Something is afoot at the Circle K, but it ain't good baseball.

WORSE THAN ANYONE COULD HAVE IMAGINED

SEATTLE: Jayson Stark already covered just how offensively the M's offense performed in 2010, but in a nutshell, it was the fewest runs scored by a team in 40 years. The fact that Felix Hernandez managed double digit wins with this club astounds me. Imagine what he and Ichiro could do if they played for a team that could hit. Unless Justin Smoak comes on strong, this team is sunk for the foreseeable future. Fun stat comparison: Mariners CRD -135; Rangers CRD +135.

UTTERLY INEXPLICABLE

KANSAS CITY: I don't know what to make of the Royals. Are they on their way up or on their way down? They seemed to collapse at the end of the year, but don't they always? They've got hot-hitting prospects just waiting to fill holes at the corners and the dish. Maybe this is why pundits are constantly taking KC as the sexy sleeper pick. I just...don't...know.

THE WORST TEAM IN ... WAIT, WHAT?

PITTSBURGH: By now you've heard about their singular road game futility, winning six such contests after the All-Star Break. The 2010 Pirates Watch concludes with the Bucs 7 games up on the 2003 Tigers, trailing them by 4 in Runs Scored, but leading the RD race by a comfortable 58 runs.

Here's what I really don't get: the Pirates were far and away the worst team in the Championship, amassing a -185 CRD (for those of you keeping score, that's more than three times worse than second-to-last Houston). However, their PRD was -94. That's still bottom five in the league, but since Pittsburgh roughly split their games between Premiership and Championship opponents, it means they were effectively twice as good against the MLB's best teams as against the worst teams. And that's as good an argument for the intangibles of baseball as any I've heard.