ASB Update

Whoa. When I promised an update around the All-Star Break, I didn't mean to leave off completely until then. But to make amends, I have the promised update, and I think you'll find the results intriguing. First, the MLB standings:

PREMIERSHIP STANDINGS (MLB)

POSITION	TEAM	GAMES PLAYED	WINS	LOSSES	RUNS SCORED	RUNS ALLOWED	RUN DIFF	Win PCG	Last Time
#1	Tampa Bay Rays	81	48	33	411	312	99	0.593	#1
#2	New York Yankees	81	50	31	436	340	96	0.617	#2
#3	Texas Rangers	81	48	33	422	343	79	0.593	#9
#4	Boston Red Sox	82	49	33	448	379	69	0.598	#14
#5	Atlanta Braves	82	48	34	384	321	63	0.585	#12
#6	St. Louis Cardinals	82	45	37	360	308	52	0.549	#6
#7	Minnesota Twins	82	44	38	382	335	47	0.537	#3
#8	Philadelphia Phillies	80	42	38	384	338	46	0.525	#4
#9	Colorado Rockies	82	44	38	385	348	37	0.537	#7
#10	San Francisco Giants	81	41	40	338	308	30	0.506	#5
#11	Los Angeles Dodgers	81	45	36	389	364	25	0.556	#13
#12	Florida Marlins	81	38	43	378	355	23	0.469	#10
#13	Los Angeles Angels	84	46	38	398	392	6	0.548	#15
#14	Toronto Blue Jays	83	41	42	370	372	-2	0.494	#8
#15	Chicago Cubs	82	35	47	320	371	-51	0.427	#11

CHAMPIONSHIP STANDINGS (MLB)

POSITION	TEAM	GAMES PLAYED	WINS	LOSSES	RUNS SCORED	RUNS ALLOWED	RUN DIFF	Win PCG	Last Time
#1	San Diego Padres	82	49	33	339	269	70	0.598	#1
#2	New York Mets	82	46	36	381	328	53	0.561	#2
#3	Cincinnati Reds	83	47	36	416	367	49	0.566	#8
#4	Detroit Tigers	80	43	37	361	361	0	0.538	#4
#5	Oakland Athletics	83	41	42	340	341	-1	0.494	#5
#6	Chicago White Sox	80	42	38	346	350	-4	0.525	#9
#7	Milwaukee Brewers	82	37	45	396	424	-28	0.451	#3
#8	Kansas City Royals	82	36	46	361	400	-39	0.439	#12
#9	Washington Nationals	83	36	47	337	383	-46	0.434	#7
#10	Seattle Mariners	81	34	47	281	343	-62	0.420	#10
#11	Cleveland Indians	81	32	49	331	403	-72	0.395	#11
#12	Arizona Diamondbacks	82	32	50	376	468	-92	0.390	#6
#13	Houston Astros	83	32	51	287	412	-125	0.386	#14
#14	Baltimore Orioles	81	25	56	285	431	-146	0.309	#13
#15	Pittsburgh Pirates	82	30	52	267	449	-182	0.366	#15

If the season ended today, then by MLB standings, the Padres, Mets, and Reds would graduate to the Premiership, while the Angels, Jays, and Cubs would suffer relegation. The feast continues for most teams in the upper echelon, and the famine likewise for the have-nots. Not much to see here, so let's turn our gaze to the True standings.

PREMIERSHIP STANDINGS (TRUE)

POSITION	TEAM	GAMES PLAYED	WINS	LOSSES	RUNS SCORED	RUNS ALLOWED	RUN DIFF	LAST TIME
#1	Tampa Bay Rays	42	23	19	224	175	49	#4
#2	Boston Red Sox	50	31	19	274	231	43	#15
#3	New York Yankees	37	21	16	212	180	32	#1
#4	Minnesota Twins	33	17	16	146	135	11	#2
#5	Colorado Rockies	38	19	19	167	156	11	#9
#6	Atlanta Braves	38	20	18	156	147	9	#5
#7	San Francisco Giants	34	16	18	134	130	4	#3
#8	St. Louis Cardinals	25	13	12	97	93	4	#10
#9	Florida Marlins	36	16	20	151	155	-4	#6
#10	Philadelphia Phillies	43	21	22	174	181	-7	#7
#11	Chicago Cubs	22	11	11	80	93	-13	#12
#12	Los Angeles Angels	43	22	21	208	222	-14	#13
#13	Los Angeles Dodgers	35	16	19	155	173	-18	#8
#14	Texas Rangers	29	11	18	120	147	-27	#14
#15	Toronto Blue Jays	47	18	29	187	235	-48	#11

Don't panic. I plan to normalize the number of games played eventually. It seems what we all suspected about the AL East is true. The Yankees, Red Sox, and Rays really are the class of baseball -- the Man Utd, Chelsea, and Arsenal of MLB. For all their problems in MLB standings, the Cubs are safe from relegation, though precariously situated. They have floundered against weaker teams, while the Jays have clearly done their best work against underperformers.

CHAMPIONSHIP STANDINGS (TRUE)

POSITION	TEAM	GAMES PLAYED	WINS	LOSSES	RUNS SCORED	RUNS ALLOWED	RUN DIFF	LAST TIME
#1	San Diego Padres	38	25	13	177	107	70	#2
#2	Cincinnati Reds	42	26	16	188	143	45	#14
#3	Oakland Athletics	37	23	14	166	122	44	#4
#4	Milwaukee Brewers	32	17	15	170	136	34	#1
#5	New York Mets	33	18	15	169	142	27	#8
#6	Kansas City Royals	37	20	17	173	154	19	#9
#7	Chicago White Sox	34	20	14	149	135	14	#11
#8	Seattle Mariners	34	20	14	162	155	7	#3
#9	Detroit Tigers	47	26	21	216	217	-1	#10
#10	Arizona Diamondbacks	19	8	11	83	87	-4	#5
#11	Washington Nationals	46	20	26	194	214	-20	#6
#12	Cleveland Indians	49	21	28	207	240	-33	#12
#13	Houston Astros	33	14	19	122	162	-40	#7
#14	Baltimore Orioles	33	12	21	120	160	-40	#13
#15	Pittsburgh Pirates	33	11	22	116	242	-126	#15

I continue to be amazed at the bell curve the two divisions produce -- both split positive and negative run differential after the 8th place team. Are you listening, Selig? Parity is unattainable! Unlike the Premiership, the worst three Championship teams in the MLB are also the three worst teams in the CBL. By comparison, the Orioles are clearly a better team than the Astros. Houston play in a weak NL Central, where the only PB teams are St. Louis and Chicago. Baltimore are the sole AL East member in the Championship, facing tough competition on a regular basis.

And what can you say about the Pirates? Well, you can say they play better against tough teams, for starters. They're not good against tough teams, mind you, but they at least seem to play up to the level of the competition. Let's track their progress against the worst team ever, the 1899 Cleveland Spiders, and the worst team in recent memory, the 2003 Detroit Tigers:

PIRATES WATCH 2010

	Runs thru 82 games	Runs allowed thru 82 games	RD thru 82 games	Record thru 82 games	Season Record	Season RD
1899 Cleveland Spiders	306	632	-326	15-67	20-134	-719
2003 Detroit Tigers	260	429	-169	20-62	43-119	-337
2010 Pittsburgh Pirates	267	449	-182	30-52	?	?

While the comparison to the Spiders is at this point unjust, check out this year's Bucs against the '03 Tigers. 7 more runs scored and 20 more runs allowed than that abysmal Detroit pitching staff, which included a 20-game loser in Mike Maroth. So why aren't we hearing more sports pundits discuss the 2010 Pirates as the worst team this generation? That's right -- because of win/loss record. Pittsburgh has 10 more wins through 82 games than the old Tigers, so they must be better! According to old Pythagoras, the Buccos have caught a streak of luck to the tune of 7 wins thus far. If their luck runs out, watch for the baseball talking heads to take notice.

The new management have put a lot of good things in place, so the future isn't all bleak in the Steel City. Maybe Pirates fans can take solace in the fact that they may finally have hit rock bottom of Sub-.500 Canyon. It can only get better in 2011, right?

With Apologies to Dallas Braden

After remarking that there was no end in sight to the Bay Rays' dominance, this happened. That is quite possibly the most poignant perfect game in baseball history.

New Standings for Mother's Day

Remember PSB fans, even the Seattle Mariners have mothers who love them. Good thing, too, because loving them has grown difficult for their fans this past week -- the M's have spent the last eight days losing all eight games they contested, though they kept most of them close. Their woeful performance has dropped them five spots in the Championship standings, the biggest change in position of any team in either grouping. The bottom four teams in both divisions remain their respective dregs, and the worst of the worst have worsened further yet. Pittsburgh are essentially treading water with a change from -79 to -82, and Baltimore took a slide from -40 to -52. Houston, however, have plummeted from -38 down to -61, wresting control of the penultimate place in the Championship away from the hapless O's.

The Rays and Yankees continue to prove themselves the class of baseball, and there's no end to their dominance on this season's horizon. The Twins, Giants, Cardinals, and Phillies are battling in the second tier of the Premiership, with the Rockies ready to join them. And what happened to the Angels? Is their pitching that bad, or have they just faced good teams? Updated standings based on current MLB records across all games as follows:

PREMIERSHIP STANDINGS (MLB)

POSITION	TEAM	GAMES PLAYED	WINS	LOSSES	RUNS SCORED	RUNS ALLOWED	RUN DIFF	Win PCG	Last Week
#1	Tampa Bay Rays	30	22	8	174	90	84	0.733	#1
#2	New York Yankees	29	21	8	175	102	73	0.724	#3
#3	Minnesota Twins	32	21	11	164	116	48	0.656	#5
#4	Philadelphia Phillies	31	19	12	165	120	45	0.613	#6
#5	San Francisco Giants	30	18	12	140	97	43	0.600	#2
#6	St. Louis Cardinals	32	20	12	141	101	40	0.625	#4
#7	Colorado Rockies	30	15	15	152	118	34	0.500	#7
#8	Toronto Blue Jays	32	18	14	152	136	16	0.563	#11
#9	Texas Rangers	31	17	14	142	131	11	0.548	#9
#10	Florida Marlins	31	14	17	144	142	2	0.452	#10
#11	Chicago Cubs	32	14	18	153	161	-8	0.438	#8
#12	Atlanta Braves	31	13	18	121	133	-12	0.419	#12
#13	Los Angeles Dodgers	30	13	17	153	171	-18	0.433	#13
#14	Boston Red Sox	31	15	16	156	174	-18	0.484	#14
#15	Los Angeles Angels	32	14	18	130	169	-39	0.438	#15

CHAMPIONSHIP STANDINGS (MLB)

POSITION	TEAM	GAMES PLAYED	WINS	LOSSES	RUNS SCORED	RUNS ALLOWED	RUN DIFF	Win PCG	Last Week
#1	San Diego Padres	31	19	12	137	97	40	0.613	#1
#2	New York Mets	31	17	14	137	120	17	0.548	#2
#3	Milwaukee Brewers	30	14	16	173	159	14	0.467	#6
#4	Detroit Tigers	31	17	14	149	146	3	0.548	#4
#5	Oakland Athletics	31	16	15	131	128	3	0.516	#3
#6	Arizona Diamondbacks	31	14	17	167	183	-16	0.452	#7
#7	Washington Nationals	31	17	14	129	146	-17	0.548	#8
#8	Cincinnati Reds	31	16	15	147	168	-21	0.516	#10
#9	Chicago White Sox	31	13	18	129	151	-22	0.419	#9
#10	Seattle Mariners	30	11	19	94	123	-29	0.367	#5
#11	Cleveland Indians	29	11	18	106	144	-38	0.379	#11
#12	Kansas City Royals	31	11	20	128	168	-40	0.355	#12
#13	Baltimore Orioles	32	9	23	107	159	-52	0.281	#14
#14	Houston Astros	31	10	21	85	146	-61	0.323	#13
#15	Pittsburgh Pirates	31	14	17	113	195	-82	0.452	#15

Next weekend: the moment you've been anticipating. Updated True standings next Saturday!

Updated Standings, Crushing Depression, and Pretending I Know about Statistics

Before we get to the updated standings, let's briefly consider the performance thus far of our leagues cellar dwellers, the Pittsburgh Pirates. As of this writing, they have amassed a total of 82 runs (28th in baseball) and allowed 161 (last in baseball), good enough for a run differential (RD) of -79. The Pirates have allowed nearly twice as many runs as they have scored through 23 games. It's a small sample size, but we're going to have fun with it anyway! Because America loves comparisons, that's why. How do this year's Bucs look next to the worst team in recent memory, the 2003 Detroit Tigers*, and the worst team in baseball history, the 1899 Cleveland Spiders?

	Runs thru 23 games	Runs allowed thru 23 games	RD thru 23 games	Record thru 23 games	Season Record	Season RD
1899 Cleveland Spiders	77	179	-102	3-20	20-134	-719
2003 Detroit Tigers	52	118	-66	3-20	43-119	-337
2010 Pittsburgh Pirates	82	161	-79	10-13	?	?

Clearly, the Pirates have fared much better than the other two teams in the wins column, and they're on top of this heap in runs scored as well. Things aren't even quite as bad as they seem in the RA column; remove their staff's three worst outings this year, and that number shrinks from 161 down to 109. Omitting these outliers would give 2010 Pittsburgh an RD of -27, moving them up from #15 to #12 in the Championship Standings. All this to say, the 2010 Pittsburgh Pirates are not a good baseball team, but they're not among the worst teams of all time.

In fact, they might not even be the worst team in baseball this season -- the hapless O's of Baltimore have an RD of -40, and they haven't allowed more than 9 runs in a game. Pirates pitching without the outliers has given up 5.45 runs per game; the Orioles have allowed 5.5 on average, and their offenses have also produced at an identical pace. Playing as the only Championship club in the AL East while Pittsburgh cavorts in the Championship-rich NL Central should permit Baltimore to surpass the Pirates in mediocrity as the season progresses. Be Brave, Bucs faithful -- it's only May 1st.

PREMIERSHIP STANDINGS:

POSITION	TEAM	GAMES PLAYED	WINS	LOSSES	RUNS SCORED	RUNS ALLOWED	RUN DIFF	Win PCG	Last Week
#1	Tampa Bay Rays	24	17	7	146	80	66	0.708	#1
#2	San Francisco Giants	23	14	9	107	66	41	0.609	#5
#3	New York Yankees	23	15	8	124	86	38	0.652	#2
#4	St. Louis Cardinals	24	16	8	111	76	35	0.667	#6
#5	Minnesota Twins	24	15	9	122	92	30	0.625	#4
#6	Philadelphia Phillies	23	13	10	125	99	26	0.565	#3
#7	Colorado Rockies	24	11	13	122	101	21	0.458	#7
#8	Chicago Cubs	25	12	13	119	112	7	0.480	#11
#9	Texas Rangers	24	12	12	108	102	6	0.500	#12
#10	Florida Marlins	24	12	12	114	111	3	0.500	#8
#11	Toronto Blue Jays	25	12	13	113	112	1	0.480	#9
#12	Atlanta Braves	24	10	14	95	104	-9	0.417	#13
#13	Los Angeles Dodgers	23	9	14	117	129	-12	0.391	#10
#14	Boston Red Sox	24	11	13	112	131	-19	0.458	#14
#15	Los Angeles Angels	25	12	13	101	125	-24	0.480	#15

CHAMPIONSHIP STANDINGS:

POSITION	TEAM	GAMES PLAYED	WINS	LOSSES	RUNS SCORED	RUNS ALLOWED	RUN DIFF	Win PCG	Last Week
#1	San Diego Padres	23	15	8	106	77	29	0.652	#1
#2	New York Mets	24	14	10	105	83	22	0.583	#3
#3	Oakland Athletics	25	13	12	110	102	8	0.520	#2
#4	Detroit Tigers	25	15	10	123	115	8	0.600	#7
#5	Seattle Mariners	24	11	13	85	87	-2	0.458	#5
#6	Milwaukee Brewers	23	9	14	126	129	-3	0.391	#4
#7	Arizona Diamondbacks	24	11	13	139	145	-6	0.458	#6
#8	Washington Nationals	24	13	11	101	115	-14	0.542	#10
#9	Chicago White Sox	24	10	14	99	117	-18	0.417	#9
#10	Cincinnati Reds	24	12	12	109	132	-23	0.500	#13
#11	Cleveland Indians	23	10	13	82	108	-26	0.435	#8
#12	Kansas City Royals	24	10	14	103	131	-28	0.417	#11
#13	Houston Astros	23	8	15	71	109	-38	0.348	#12
#14	Baltimore Orioles	24	6	18	87	127	-40	0.250	#14
#15	Pittsburgh Pirates	23	10	13	82	161	-79	0.435	#15

Remember, true standings (against teams within the Premiership and Championship) will be released on a less regular basis due to small sample sizes and (frankly) effort involved. Coming soon, opinion pieces on the game, Cubs fandom, and the nature of strategy in Premiership Baseball.


*I was surprised to learn in my research that this team had neither the worst offensive production nor the worst pitching/defense in the majors that season. Those ignoble honors go to the LA Dodgers (574 runs scored) and the Texas Rangers (969 RA). Of course, the Dodgers had the best staff in baseball that year with 556 RA, and the Rangers were 8th in baseball with 826 runs.