This season, I've overhauled the Excel spreadsheet, dramatically increasing its robust productivity (robustivity) to bring the data to you more quickly. I might even go weekly here, people. Take a moment to catch your breath.
First, a brief reminder of what Premiership baseball is all about:
- The current MLB measure of success is the win. Win a much higher percentage of games than you lose (within a roughly-geographical grouping of other teams within yet another group decided by the presence of pitchers in the lineup as a matter of course), and you go to something called the "playoffs," an elimination tournament wherein the last team standing is crowned World Series Champion (of the only two countries in the known world). Luck is nice and all, but I think we can do better.
- The rawest measure of a baseball team's success is how well they A) score runs and B) prevent the opponent from scoring runs. Subtract their runs allowed from their runs scored and you get run differential (RD), which is how I'll judge success.
- I started out by splitting the major league clubs into two divisions based on their 2009 end-of-season RD -- the Premiership (teams with positive RD) and the Championship (teams with negative RD). At the end of every season, the three (note: number subject to change) teams with the lowest RD in the Premiership switch places with the teams holding the highest RD in the Championship.
At the end of last season, the Dodgers, Marlins and Blue Jays suffered relegation, while the Padres, Reds and A's earned a year's stay in the top flight. So after 100 games, I'm eager to see how things are shaping up in 2011.
PREMIERSHIP STANDINGS (MLB)
| POSITION | TEAM | GAMES PLAYED | WINS | LOSSES | RUNS SCORED | RUNS ALLOWED | RUN DIFF | Win PCG |
| #1 | Boston Red Sox | 96 | 59 | 37 | 519 | 401 | 118 | 0.615 |
| #2 | New York Yankees | 96 | 57 | 39 | 486 | 369 | 117 | 0.594 |
| #3 | Philadelphia Phillies | 97 | 61 | 36 | 415 | 322 | 93 | 0.629 |
| #4 | Texas Rangers | 99 | 56 | 43 | 489 | 416 | 73 | 0.566 |
| #5 | Atlanta Braves | 99 | 58 | 41 | 408 | 351 | 57 | 0.586 |
| #6 | Tampa Bay Rays | 97 | 52 | 45 | 403 | 371 | 32 | 0.536 |
| #7 | Cincinnati Reds | 98 | 48 | 50 | 450 | 422 | 28 | 0.490 |
| #8 | St. Louis Cardinals | 98 | 51 | 47 | 456 | 429 | 27 | 0.520 |
| #9 | San Francisco Giants | 99 | 57 | 42 | 361 | 343 | 18 | 0.576 |
| #10 | Los Angeles Angels | 99 | 53 | 46 | 376 | 365 | 11 | 0.535 |
| #11 | Colorado Rockies | 99 | 47 | 52 | 446 | 443 | 3 | 0.475 |
| #12 | Oakland Athletics | 98 | 43 | 55 | 345 | 363 | -18 | 0.439 |
| #13 | San Diego Padres | 99 | 44 | 55 | 344 | 363 | -19 | 0.444 |
| #14 | Minnesota Twins | 98 | 46 | 52 | 380 | 449 | -69 | 0.469 |
| #15 | Chicago Cubs | 99 | 39 | 60 | 397 | 500 | -103 | 0.394 |
CHAMPIONSHIP STANDINGS (MLB)
| POSITION | TEAM | GAMES PLAYED | WINS | LOSSES | RUNS SCORED | RUNS ALLOWED | RUN DIFF | Win PCG |
| #1 | Toronto Blue Jays | 99 | 50 | 49 | 476 | 451 | 25 | 0.505 |
| #2 | Pittsburgh Pirates | 96 | 51 | 45 | 373 | 360 | 13 | 0.531 |
| #3 | New York Mets | 98 | 49 | 49 | 430 | 422 | 8 | 0.500 |
| #4 | Arizona Diamondbacks | 99 | 53 | 46 | 439 | 432 | 7 | 0.535 |
| #5 | Cleveland Indians | 97 | 51 | 46 | 425 | 419 | 6 | 0.526 |
| #6 | Chicago White Sox | 98 | 47 | 51 | 390 | 397 | -7 | 0.480 |
| #7 | Milwaukee Brewers | 100 | 53 | 47 | 436 | 444 | -8 | 0.530 |
| #8 | Washington Nationals | 98 | 48 | 50 | 379 | 388 | -9 | 0.490 |
| #9 | Detroit Tigers | 98 | 52 | 46 | 438 | 449 | -11 | 0.531 |
| #10 | Los Angeles Dodgers | 98 | 43 | 55 | 353 | 394 | -41 | 0.439 |
| #11 | Seattle Mariners | 98 | 43 | 55 | 319 | 360 | -41 | 0.439 |
| #12 | Florida Marlins | 99 | 47 | 52 | 389 | 433 | -44 | 0.475 |
| #13 | Kansas City Royals | 98 | 40 | 58 | 422 | 474 | -52 | 0.408 |
| #14 | Baltimore Orioles | 95 | 39 | 56 | 394 | 497 | -103 | 0.411 |
| #15 | Houston Astros | 98 | 33 | 65 | 381 | 492 | -111 | 0.337 |
PREMIERSHIP STANDINGS (TRUE)
| POSITION | TEAM | GAMES PLAYED | WINS | LOSSES | RUN DIFF | CHAMP RD |
| #1 | Philadelphia Phillies | 43 | 27 | 16 | 43 | 50 |
| #2 | New York Yankees | 45 | 26 | 19 | 31 | 86 |
| #3 | Cincinnati Reds | 40 | 22 | 18 | 27 | 1 |
| #4 | Boston Red Sox | 46 | 29 | 17 | 23 | 95 |
| #5 | Tampa Bay Rays | 44 | 23 | 21 | 23 | 9 |
| #6 | Texas Rangers | 44 | 21 | 23 | 4 | 69 |
| #7 | Atlanta Braves | 44 | 24 | 20 | -2 | 59 |
| #8 | San Francisco Giants | 50 | 28 | 22 | -6 | 24 |
| #9 | Colorado Rockies | 42 | 18 | 24 | -6 | 9 |
| #10 | St. Louis Cardinals | 45 | 23 | 22 | -8 | 35 |
| #11 | Minnesota Twins | 35 | 16 | 19 | -8 | -61 |
| #12 | Los Angeles Angels | 47 | 21 | 26 | -14 | 25 |
| #13 | Oakland Athletics | 45 | 19 | 26 | -23 | 5 |
| #14 | San Diego Padres | 50 | 20 | 30 | -29 | 10 |
| #15 | Chicago Cubs | 42 | 14 | 28 | -55 | -48 |
CHAMPIONSHIP STANDINGS (TRUE)
Now, in the Premiership, newly advanced Oakland and San Diego find themselves in trouble, along with my beloved Cubs, who barely made the cut in 2010. It's a similar tale of woe for the recently demerited -- if the season ended today, the Jays, Marlins and Dodgers would remain in the relegation pool, giving way to the unlikely trio of Cleveland, Milwaukee, and the Mets. But with 60+ games remaining, anything could happen.
| POSITION | TEAM | GAMES PLAYED | WINS | LOSSES | PREM DIFF | RUN DIFF |
| #1 | Cleveland Indians | 44 | 29 | 15 | -51 | 57 |
| #2 | New York Mets | 43 | 26 | 17 | -41 | 49 |
| #3 | Milwaukee Brewers | 33 | 20 | 13 | 0 | 32 |
| #4 | Toronto Blue Jays | 39 | 21 | 18 | 1 | 24 |
| #5 | Arizona Diamondbacks | 45 | 25 | 20 | 0 | 7 |
| #6 | Chicago White Sox | 45 | 21 | 24 | -12 | 5 |
| #7 | Florida Marlins | 44 | 23 | 21 | -43 | -1 |
| #8 | Washington Nationals | 50 | 25 | 25 | -8 | -1 |
| #9 | Baltimore Orioles | 41 | 21 | 20 | -89 | -14 |
| #10 | Pittsburgh Pirates | 54 | 26 | 28 | 29 | -16 |
| #11 | Los Angeles Dodgers | 36 | 15 | 21 | -24 | -17 |
| #12 | Detroit Tigers | 55 | 28 | 27 | 7 | -18 |
| #13 | Seattle Mariners | 42 | 15 | 27 | -9 | -32 |
| #14 | Houston Astros | 46 | 18 | 28 | -77 | -34 |
| #15 | Kansas City Royals | 43 | 17 | 26 | -11 | -41 |
Now, in the Premiership, newly advanced Oakland and San Diego find themselves in trouble, along with my beloved Cubs, who barely made the cut in 2010. It's a similar tale of woe for the recently demerited -- if the season ended today, the Jays, Marlins and Dodgers would remain in the relegation pool, giving way to the unlikely trio of Cleveland, Milwaukee, and the Mets. But with 60+ games remaining, anything could happen.
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One more note: in last season's concluding post, I noted that the teams with the highest CRD (Championship run differential) either made the playoffs or were edged out by another team on the list within their division. If we apply the same criterion to the current standings, then this (very rudimentary) rubric finds the following clubs playing in October (* indicates a fair [read: completely nonmathematical] degree of certainty):
*Boston 95 -- AL East Champions
*NY Yankees 86 -- AL Wild Card
*Texas 69 -- AL West Champions
Atlanta 59 -- NL East Champions
*Cleveland 57 -- AL Central Champions
Philadelphia 50 -- NL Wild Card
St. Louis 35 -- NL Central Champions
*San Francisco 24 -- NL West Champions
The race for the NL Central is very, very close -- the Cards have only a 3-run advantage over Milwaukee. And I have to mention: for the second year in a row, the Pirates are on track to do twice as well against the top teams as against the second-tier sides. I don't see them making the playoffs.
But I do see them finishing about .500 for the first time since 1992.
