2010 Season Wrap-Up Part 1: the Championship

*blows dust off Excel spreadsheets*

*cracks neck, knuckles*

All right, kids, it's time to recap this thing. I'm patting myself on the back for getting it out the door before pitchers and catchers report for Spring Training. We set high standards of excellence around here. Let's dive into the lower division and see what we can discern, along with the conclusion of this year's Pirates Watch. We'll start with the clubs slated for promotion.

THE LOCKS

CINCINNATI: A few Championship teams clearly excelled in the True standings this year -- Cincinnati not only made the postseason but won the National League team Triple Crown. It couldn't keep them from crashing out of the NLDS in straight sets against Premiership stalwart Philadelphia, though, and the numbers tell the story. The Redlegs built up an impressive +105 run differential against Championship opponents, but against the elite, they were a disappointing -21. But considering that no Championship club finished with a positive RD against the Premiership (in fact, only eight clubs managed to do so -- more on that in later posts), Cincy can be proud of their accomplishments and almost certain promotion to the 2011 Premiership.

SAN DIEGO: The Fraticelli faithful were flummoxed in their shot at the post season, losing out on the NL West title to eventual 2010 champs San Francisco, and missing out on the wild card as well. They finished just behind Cincinnati in CRD and just ahead of them in PRD. Though the season did not go their way, they'll get their chance for revenge against the Giants in next year's Premiership.

OAKLAND: And speaking of the Bay Area, the White Elephants finished with a highly respectable RD against their Championship opponents this season. But as long as division-winners Texas outscore them in CRD by 50, there's little hope of the A's climbing out of second place in the AL West.

ON THE BUBBLE

CHICAGO WHITE SOX: The Li'l Brudders managed to finish the season with the best PRD of any Championship team at -2, twenty runs better than the crosstown rival Cubs. The pitching staff hasn't improved for 2011, but with the addition of a big bat in Adam Dunn, they may yet make their case for a prolonged stay in the Premiership.

DETROIT: Still behind the Twins and the surging Sox in the AL Central, their -29 PRD beats the A's mark of -40, but doesn't quite get them to the next level. Miggy Cabrera can't do it all by himself -- Victor Martinez will help some, and Joaquin Benoit should help nail down a shaky bullpen. They'll have to hope young staffers Scherzer, Porcello, and Galarraga can lead them to the promised land.

WAIT 'TIL NEXT YEAR

MILWAUKEE: Now, the Brewers may not seem all that impressive given their division and their finish within it, but they were actually a bit lucky in that respect, finishing with a worse PRD than cellar-dwellers Houston. Their problem was pitching and defense, allowing over 800 runs in 2010. With the addition of Cy Young winner Greinke and a solid #3 in Shawn Marcum, look for a surprising run from the Hopmen in 2011. You know, if Corey Hart and Casey McGehee don't turn into pumpkins.

TREADING WATER

NEW YORK METS: Doing just enough to finish around .500 is never going to cut it in the NL East. The Phillies and Braves are clearly ahead of them, and they're about even with the Marlins. Until someone comes along to save the franchise (Ike Davis? Johan Santana again?), this team will play for nothing more than its skipper's job every season.

ARIZONA: There's something of a divide between the Metropolitans and Slytherin here -- the Amazin's actually finished with a CRD close to zero. The Diamondbacks juuuust missed the mark at -117. But seeing as they're the only NL West club playing Championship calibre baseball, we'll give them the benefit of strength of schedule. As a side note, remember when this club had pitching galore? Brandon Webb, Dan Haren, Randy Johnson? Now they have one good player (Upton), one pretty good player (C.B. Young), one possible flash-in-the-pan (Kelly Johnson), Miguel Montero, and a rotation anchored by Joe Saunders. Let's hope Daniel Hudson lives up to his promising late-season performance.

NOT AS BAD AS YOU MIGHT THINK, BUT STILL BAD

WASHINGTON: The Nationals continue to dwell in the NL East cellar. They've found no answers at pitching besides the hope of Stephen Strasburg's elbow and overuse of Tyler Clippard, trying the likes of left-for-dead Chien-Ming Wang and probably-not-worth-three-prospects Tom Gorzelanny. They lost Adam Dunn and tried to replace him with an aging, overpaid Jayson Werth. Is it time to call up Bryce Harper yet?

CLEVELAND: Nope, it's not the lack of Grady Sizemore. It's a young rotation, a suspect bullpen, and the fact that Pronk Hafner gave up the ghost three years ago. It's tough to be optimistic about Cleveland in general these days, and the Indians aren't helping matters. Here's hoping Carlos Santana makes it back to the show soon.

EXACTLY AS BAD AS YOU MIGHT THINK

BALTIMORE: Like the D'Backs, the Flying Showalters are the only team in their division in the Championship, and with a total RD of -172, they'd likely deserve to stay there if not for a rather intriguing off-season. They dealt for free-swinging Mark Reynolds, signed the more disciplined Vlad Guerrero, overhauled the infield with Derrek Lee and J.J. Hardy, and if Matusz and Tillman can take the next step, the O's could be pleasantly frisky this season. If only they played in another division.

HOUSTON: The Astros finished on about the same level as the Orioles, made worse by their National League status and the fact that only two of the five other teams in the NL Central played at a Premiership level this season. They traded their long-time ace, El Caballo is now the Great Pumpkin, and Hunter Pence isn't the next big thing anymore. Also, they have one of the league's worst farm systems. Something is afoot at the Circle K, but it ain't good baseball.

WORSE THAN ANYONE COULD HAVE IMAGINED

SEATTLE: Jayson Stark already covered just how offensively the M's offense performed in 2010, but in a nutshell, it was the fewest runs scored by a team in 40 years. The fact that Felix Hernandez managed double digit wins with this club astounds me. Imagine what he and Ichiro could do if they played for a team that could hit. Unless Justin Smoak comes on strong, this team is sunk for the foreseeable future. Fun stat comparison: Mariners CRD -135; Rangers CRD +135.

UTTERLY INEXPLICABLE

KANSAS CITY: I don't know what to make of the Royals. Are they on their way up or on their way down? They seemed to collapse at the end of the year, but don't they always? They've got hot-hitting prospects just waiting to fill holes at the corners and the dish. Maybe this is why pundits are constantly taking KC as the sexy sleeper pick. I just...don't...know.

THE WORST TEAM IN ... WAIT, WHAT?

PITTSBURGH: By now you've heard about their singular road game futility, winning six such contests after the All-Star Break. The 2010 Pirates Watch concludes with the Bucs 7 games up on the 2003 Tigers, trailing them by 4 in Runs Scored, but leading the RD race by a comfortable 58 runs.

Here's what I really don't get: the Pirates were far and away the worst team in the Championship, amassing a -185 CRD (for those of you keeping score, that's more than three times worse than second-to-last Houston). However, their PRD was -94. That's still bottom five in the league, but since Pittsburgh roughly split their games between Premiership and Championship opponents, it means they were effectively twice as good against the MLB's best teams as against the worst teams. And that's as good an argument for the intangibles of baseball as any I've heard.

ASB Update

Whoa. When I promised an update around the All-Star Break, I didn't mean to leave off completely until then. But to make amends, I have the promised update, and I think you'll find the results intriguing. First, the MLB standings:

PREMIERSHIP STANDINGS (MLB)

POSITION	TEAM	GAMES PLAYED	WINS	LOSSES	RUNS SCORED	RUNS ALLOWED	RUN DIFF	Win PCG	Last Time
#1	Tampa Bay Rays	81	48	33	411	312	99	0.593	#1
#2	New York Yankees	81	50	31	436	340	96	0.617	#2
#3	Texas Rangers	81	48	33	422	343	79	0.593	#9
#4	Boston Red Sox	82	49	33	448	379	69	0.598	#14
#5	Atlanta Braves	82	48	34	384	321	63	0.585	#12
#6	St. Louis Cardinals	82	45	37	360	308	52	0.549	#6
#7	Minnesota Twins	82	44	38	382	335	47	0.537	#3
#8	Philadelphia Phillies	80	42	38	384	338	46	0.525	#4
#9	Colorado Rockies	82	44	38	385	348	37	0.537	#7
#10	San Francisco Giants	81	41	40	338	308	30	0.506	#5
#11	Los Angeles Dodgers	81	45	36	389	364	25	0.556	#13
#12	Florida Marlins	81	38	43	378	355	23	0.469	#10
#13	Los Angeles Angels	84	46	38	398	392	6	0.548	#15
#14	Toronto Blue Jays	83	41	42	370	372	-2	0.494	#8
#15	Chicago Cubs	82	35	47	320	371	-51	0.427	#11

CHAMPIONSHIP STANDINGS (MLB)

POSITION	TEAM	GAMES PLAYED	WINS	LOSSES	RUNS SCORED	RUNS ALLOWED	RUN DIFF	Win PCG	Last Time
#1	San Diego Padres	82	49	33	339	269	70	0.598	#1
#2	New York Mets	82	46	36	381	328	53	0.561	#2
#3	Cincinnati Reds	83	47	36	416	367	49	0.566	#8
#4	Detroit Tigers	80	43	37	361	361	0	0.538	#4
#5	Oakland Athletics	83	41	42	340	341	-1	0.494	#5
#6	Chicago White Sox	80	42	38	346	350	-4	0.525	#9
#7	Milwaukee Brewers	82	37	45	396	424	-28	0.451	#3
#8	Kansas City Royals	82	36	46	361	400	-39	0.439	#12
#9	Washington Nationals	83	36	47	337	383	-46	0.434	#7
#10	Seattle Mariners	81	34	47	281	343	-62	0.420	#10
#11	Cleveland Indians	81	32	49	331	403	-72	0.395	#11
#12	Arizona Diamondbacks	82	32	50	376	468	-92	0.390	#6
#13	Houston Astros	83	32	51	287	412	-125	0.386	#14
#14	Baltimore Orioles	81	25	56	285	431	-146	0.309	#13
#15	Pittsburgh Pirates	82	30	52	267	449	-182	0.366	#15

If the season ended today, then by MLB standings, the Padres, Mets, and Reds would graduate to the Premiership, while the Angels, Jays, and Cubs would suffer relegation. The feast continues for most teams in the upper echelon, and the famine likewise for the have-nots. Not much to see here, so let's turn our gaze to the True standings.

PREMIERSHIP STANDINGS (TRUE)

POSITION	TEAM	GAMES PLAYED	WINS	LOSSES	RUNS SCORED	RUNS ALLOWED	RUN DIFF	LAST TIME
#1	Tampa Bay Rays	42	23	19	224	175	49	#4
#2	Boston Red Sox	50	31	19	274	231	43	#15
#3	New York Yankees	37	21	16	212	180	32	#1
#4	Minnesota Twins	33	17	16	146	135	11	#2
#5	Colorado Rockies	38	19	19	167	156	11	#9
#6	Atlanta Braves	38	20	18	156	147	9	#5
#7	San Francisco Giants	34	16	18	134	130	4	#3
#8	St. Louis Cardinals	25	13	12	97	93	4	#10
#9	Florida Marlins	36	16	20	151	155	-4	#6
#10	Philadelphia Phillies	43	21	22	174	181	-7	#7
#11	Chicago Cubs	22	11	11	80	93	-13	#12
#12	Los Angeles Angels	43	22	21	208	222	-14	#13
#13	Los Angeles Dodgers	35	16	19	155	173	-18	#8
#14	Texas Rangers	29	11	18	120	147	-27	#14
#15	Toronto Blue Jays	47	18	29	187	235	-48	#11

Don't panic. I plan to normalize the number of games played eventually. It seems what we all suspected about the AL East is true. The Yankees, Red Sox, and Rays really are the class of baseball -- the Man Utd, Chelsea, and Arsenal of MLB. For all their problems in MLB standings, the Cubs are safe from relegation, though precariously situated. They have floundered against weaker teams, while the Jays have clearly done their best work against underperformers.

CHAMPIONSHIP STANDINGS (TRUE)

POSITION	TEAM	GAMES PLAYED	WINS	LOSSES	RUNS SCORED	RUNS ALLOWED	RUN DIFF	LAST TIME
#1	San Diego Padres	38	25	13	177	107	70	#2
#2	Cincinnati Reds	42	26	16	188	143	45	#14
#3	Oakland Athletics	37	23	14	166	122	44	#4
#4	Milwaukee Brewers	32	17	15	170	136	34	#1
#5	New York Mets	33	18	15	169	142	27	#8
#6	Kansas City Royals	37	20	17	173	154	19	#9
#7	Chicago White Sox	34	20	14	149	135	14	#11
#8	Seattle Mariners	34	20	14	162	155	7	#3
#9	Detroit Tigers	47	26	21	216	217	-1	#10
#10	Arizona Diamondbacks	19	8	11	83	87	-4	#5
#11	Washington Nationals	46	20	26	194	214	-20	#6
#12	Cleveland Indians	49	21	28	207	240	-33	#12
#13	Houston Astros	33	14	19	122	162	-40	#7
#14	Baltimore Orioles	33	12	21	120	160	-40	#13
#15	Pittsburgh Pirates	33	11	22	116	242	-126	#15

I continue to be amazed at the bell curve the two divisions produce -- both split positive and negative run differential after the 8th place team. Are you listening, Selig? Parity is unattainable! Unlike the Premiership, the worst three Championship teams in the MLB are also the three worst teams in the CBL. By comparison, the Orioles are clearly a better team than the Astros. Houston play in a weak NL Central, where the only PB teams are St. Louis and Chicago. Baltimore are the sole AL East member in the Championship, facing tough competition on a regular basis.

And what can you say about the Pirates? Well, you can say they play better against tough teams, for starters. They're not good against tough teams, mind you, but they at least seem to play up to the level of the competition. Let's track their progress against the worst team ever, the 1899 Cleveland Spiders, and the worst team in recent memory, the 2003 Detroit Tigers:

PIRATES WATCH 2010

	Runs thru 82 games	Runs allowed thru 82 games	RD thru 82 games	Record thru 82 games	Season Record	Season RD
1899 Cleveland Spiders	306	632	-326	15-67	20-134	-719
2003 Detroit Tigers	260	429	-169	20-62	43-119	-337
2010 Pittsburgh Pirates	267	449	-182	30-52	?	?

While the comparison to the Spiders is at this point unjust, check out this year's Bucs against the '03 Tigers. 7 more runs scored and 20 more runs allowed than that abysmal Detroit pitching staff, which included a 20-game loser in Mike Maroth. So why aren't we hearing more sports pundits discuss the 2010 Pirates as the worst team this generation? That's right -- because of win/loss record. Pittsburgh has 10 more wins through 82 games than the old Tigers, so they must be better! According to old Pythagoras, the Buccos have caught a streak of luck to the tune of 7 wins thus far. If their luck runs out, watch for the baseball talking heads to take notice.

The new management have put a lot of good things in place, so the future isn't all bleak in the Steel City. Maybe Pirates fans can take solace in the fact that they may finally have hit rock bottom of Sub-.500 Canyon. It can only get better in 2011, right?